Automakers Losing Religion; CARB Keeps Unfounded Faith

The expense and impracticality of hydrogen fuel cell powered cars is beginning to dawn on the major automakers. Batteries will do within a few short years what H2 advocates can only dream. The Wall Street Journal reports GM, Toyota Doubtful on Fuel Cells' Mass Use.

Top executives from General Motors Corp. and Toyota Motor Corp. Tuesday expressed doubts about the viability of hydrogen fuel cells for mass-market production in the near term and suggested their companies are now betting that electric cars will prove to be a better way to reduce fuel consumption and cut tailpipe emissions on a large scale.

Further evidence that the action is in electric cars and the batteries that will energize them: General Electric has invested $4 million in Th!nk Global, and $20 million in A123. Business Week reports GE plugs into electric car investments. And Th!nk has debuted a larger concept car, which it has developed with an unnamed major automaker. Green Wombat has more info here.

Pretty soon it might be down to BMW and Honda advertising the dream, with the California Air Resources Board acting as enabler. CARB staff is recommending lowering once again the required number of zero emission vehicles - this time by a mere 90%! Honda, the supposed H2 true believer, is actually given an incentive to produce fewer of its much touted Clarity FCV.

The Air Resources Board could probably find a way to lead by prodding early commercialization of battery ZEVs, but instead it appears to be regulating itself into irrelevancy.

Th!nk thinks bigger

Th!nk CEO Jan Olaf Willums made a return appearance at the Cleantech Forum in San Francisco this week. He sat down with Todd Woody, Business 2.0's Green Wombat. The small 2 seater Th!nk City is rolling off the Norwegian assembly line and 500 cars are set for March delivery. Cars will be delivered in London and Paris and Scandinavia. The strategy of delivering cars to urban centers with incentive programs bodes well for California cities, especially if CARB comes up with better incentives for battery electric cars.

Equally exciting are the plans for a larger 4 or 5 passenger car in partnership with an established auto maker. Referring to Tesla's planned White Star, Willums said,

"We won't compete with Tesla," says Willums. "The Tesla will be more a BMW; we'll be more the Volkswagen."

On Prius

There's much I should be blogging these days and hopefully will shortly. The pathetic CARB staff ZEV recommendations (here); Bob Lutz's latest inanity about inefficient windshield wipers effect on electric cars' range; London's step backward on the congestion charge. I'll get to them.

But for now, enjoy a pointed chuckle. Check out the blog Stuff White People Like on the Prius. Reminds me to blog about that Lexus ad campaign casting a spell around the letter h. How to spin a false green consciousness around a gasoline burning luxury automobile.

Over the years, white people have gone through a number of official cars. In the 1980s it was the Saab and the Volvo. By the 1990s it was the Volkswagen Jetta or a Subaru 4WD stastion wagon. But these days, there is only one car for white people. One car that defines all that they love: the Toyota Prius.

The Prius might be the most perfect white product ever. It’s expensive, gives the idea that you are helping the environment, and requires no commitment/changes other than money.

BMW Hammers One More Nail in Hydrogen Coffin

Even as BMW clean car honchos tour the globe with the Hydrogen 7, the German automaker could be coming to terms with reality. According to Drive, an Australian magazine

The head of BMW's clean-energy technology, Jochen Schmalholz, says hydrogen-powered cars are still 15 to 20 years away from being on the road "in significant numbers" and revealed the German maker is also working on an electric vehicle.

With only 5 liquid hydrogen filling stations in the world available to fuel the 100 Hydrogen 7s - "Distribution is the biggest hurdle to the hydrogen car," Schmalholz says - it could be dawning on BMW that it would be better to develop cars for the electric infrastructure already in place around the world.

He says BMW is also working on an electric car but a decision on production is yet to be made.

"We will only bring this [electric car] if it makes sense," he says. "At the moment we are not really convinced it will work for BMW. But if it makes commercial sense and it makes sense to our customers, then we will do it."

Let BMW know.

Toyota Snags a RAV4 EV

The storyline is meant to be changing. From Who Killed the Electric Car? to Who Revived the Electric Car? Now that automakers seem to be reevaluating plug-in cars, you'd think the era of automakers taking extraordinary steps to keep electric cars from private ownership would be over. You'd be wrong. As GM talks up the Volt, it ensures EV1s at museums and universities not be returned to the road as electric cars. As Toyota gets headlines for suggesting it will offer a few fleets a few plug-in hybrids in 3 or 4 years, it does what it can to take the myth-busting RAV4 EV out of private hands.

In mid-January a 2002 RAV4 EV south of San Francisco came to the end of its five year lease. The leaseholder chose not to buy out the lease, and returned the electric car to the dealer. Very few RAV4 EVs have been returned to the dealer when the lease ends. Most people have been so pleased with their electric Toyota that they choose to buy the car outright. Some, recognizing the market for the cars, pay the $27,000 balance only to turn around and eBay the car, earning a quick $5,000 to$15,000. Why this leaseholder simply turned in his electric car to his Toyota dealer is unknown.

But Eric Doebert, a salesman at Magnussen Toyota in Palo Alto, knew there was still interest in the car. The dealership did well with the RAV4 EV during the brief period it was offered, selling twenty one of the $42,000 electric SUVs. And as soon as the word got out that a used RAV4 EV had been returned and would be offered for sale, the calls of interest began to pile up. Ordinarily when a leased car is returned the dealer gets first dibs - if they choose they can buy the car and sell it.

Since no leased RAV4 EV had ever been returned to the Palo Alto dealer, Doebert was unprepared for Toyota's unusual next steps. The Toyota computer had a block on the car - the dealer couldn't buy the car. The dealer wanted to work out something with Toyota due to the great interest in the car. They simply wanted to do a little business, sell the used electric car. But Toyota refused. I know that at least once before a leased car was returned to another dealer, and ultimately that RAV4 EV was resold to a private party. Apparently Toyota decided that would not happen again.

So just before closing time on Thursday January 24th, without any notice and after the sales and used car staff had left, Toyota corporate in San Ramon sent two of its agents to retrieve the car. The lot boy gave up the keys, and the staff returned the next morning to find a good sale on a great Toyota had been denied them by Toyota.

The situation isn't as bad as it might have been. Toyota agreed with Plug In America in 2005 to stop destroying RAV4 EVs, and I trust that this car will remain "in service." But it won't be driving around the San Francisco Bay Area, taking someone to work, some kids to school, heightening interest in plug in cars and proving the viability of electric cars. RAV4 EVs in private hands prove daily that electric cars are not dead yet.

First Production Tesla Roadster on its Way to US

Tesla has sent a letter to those who have ordered one of its Roadsters with some good news. The first Roadster is on its way. All necessary EPA, DOT and NHTSA approvals have been received. And series production begins in March, beginning at the rate of one per week.

The much discussed problems with the original 2 speed transmission will be resolved with an interim one speed so as not to delay early production. Initial acceleration will slow from 0 to 60 in 4 seconds to 5.7. This laggard will be replaced later this year by a new one-speed that will achieve the original design specs once testing is completed. The cars' transitional transmission will then be replaced free.

Tesla stores in LA and Menlo Park are under construction and will be open when cars are delivered to provide service.

And what should be an exciting Q&A session for owners will take place on January 30.

And Motortrend is the first of the big car mags with a review, here.

Government, Renault and Agassi: Making Israel a Better Place for Electric Cars

Shai Agassi's ambitious Project Better Place takes a step forward today in Israel. The government will announce its support for the venture which has been developing between Agassi and Renault to bring electric cars to the virtual island that is Israel. Carlos Ghosn, chairman of Nissan and Renault will participate in the announcement.

As I have commented before, there is no better proving grounds for EVs than Israel. No oil. Lots of cars but no great distance to travel. Intellectual and financial resources aplenty.

Agassi's project focussing on the infrastructure side with its talk of charging points and battery swapping has long struck me as interesting, well-intended, but suffering from some misconceptions endemic to those who think about this stuff but don't drive an electric car.

I've long believed the problem is lack of cars not "fuel." My first electric car was a 50 mile range 57 mph top speed Th!nk City. Not quite a real car in the conception of the average American. Not what I wanted for my next car in 2001. But I gave it a shot as by then the automakers were no longer making available the better EVs I'd come to covet. I came to realize my little Th!nk had its considerable benefits and limitations. But the problem was certainly not availability of "fuel." Electricity is ubiquitous. Even 220 volt power in a 110v world was obtainable tapping in to friends' dryer outlets.

Raising a couple of hundred million dollars not to build electric cars struck me as peculiar. But the plan is becoming clearer as at least one car maker appears to be buying in. As reported in the NY Times today here:

The idea, said Shai Agassi, 39, the software entrepreneur behind the new company, is to sell electric car transportation on the model of the cellphone. Purchasers get subsidized hardware — the car — and pay a monthly fee for expected mileage, like minutes on a cellphone plan....Renault and Nissan will provide the cars.....Mr. Agassi’s company, Project Better Place of Palo Alto, Calif., will provide the lithium-ion batteries, which will be able to go 124 miles per charge, and the infrastructure necessary to keep the cars going — whether parking meter-like plugs on city streets or service stations along highways....

Where these batteries will come from hasn't been announced. But certainly if the energy storage isn't the responsibility of the automaker, the car becomes quite affordable. If Agassi has a better place to get batteries, and can leverage the investments into a profitable financing scheme for the energy, he could be on to something.

Jerusalem Post report here.

Financial Times report here.

CARB Races to Rescue Faltering Hydrogen Highway

In meetings reminiscent of Dick Cheney's energy confabs, California Air Resources Board Chair Mary Nichols convened energy companies and auto makers to try to save California's buckling Hydrogen Highway. As reported in the San Jose Mercury News today, Friday, January 11,

"We are getting strong expressions of support from them to increase their level of commitments, including financially," said Mary Nichols, who chairs the Air Resources Board, talking about the energy companies. "We can't discuss the details of this at this point."

Even the hydrogen filling station at the Fuel Cell Partnership itself closed when the lease lapsed on December 31.

Now the state is promising to throw good money after bad. As the state declares a budget emergency,

The Air Resources Board said it will reissue bids for the projects in the next few weeks and will add money to help upgrade two existing stations. There is already $7.7 million set aside for the competitive projects from past budgets. An additional $6 million is being requested for future projects in Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's proposed budget, which he released Thursday. [emphasis added]

This "hydrogen hiccup" should be taken as an opportunity to smother a failed, diversionary research project. It is a shame that California agencies charged with cleaning the air, lowering carbon emissions, and reducing our petroleum dependence continue to hallucinate a hydrogen future and throw taxpayer money at oil companies and auto makers forestalling truly viable zero emission plug-in vehicles. Mary Nichols ought to return the ZEV program to its original mission - near-term commercialization of practical, economic zero emission vehicles. That means battery electric cars. The Board should take such action at its meeting in March when it considers revisions to the Zero Emission Vehicle Program.

Hydrogen Implosion in California

The San Jose Mercury News reports on roadblocks appearing on Schwarzenegger's much ballyhooed Hydrogen Highway. Planned stations aren't opening and existing stations are closing. California utility giant PG&E has turned down $1.5 million in state funds to open a retail hydrogen station in San Carlos.

PG&E officials said they've shifted hydrogen to the back stage and now consider it a distant technology, with electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids moving to the front of the line.

"This is a significant change in attitude. People are simply refusing to participate, even if they get money from the state. If state officials don't step in, the hydrogen highway could collapse," said V. John White, executive director of the Center for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Technologies.

This is very good news. The long term gamble on hydrogen and fuel cells made with public money by the Air Resources Board ought finally receive serious scrutiny. The ZEV program became an expensive research project. The ARB ought return the ZEV program to its original mission - commercialization of practical, economic zero emission vehicles. That means battery electric cars.

And now, Toyota's turn

An anonymous commenter on my previous blogpost asks,

"GM has alway said that the battery might not be ready.... GM never lied about it but like always lots of people like to knock GM. Why not pick on Toyota for a while."

I've got no problem picking on Toyota, too. Toyota continues to use the Prius to cover a multitude of sins. They are selling larger, less fuel-efficient vehicles than ever; they slap a hybrid drive into a $100,000 Lexus, achieve minimal fuel savings, and earn more green kudos all while continuing to spread disinformation about the value of true electrification by advertising their hybrids as half electric cars "you never have to plug in." Of course the truth is you can't.

But unlike GM, Toyota hasn't promised a plug in car. They haven't had to. (Although they built a damn good one when they were forced to. Read all about it here.) While I have no doubt Toyota will release a plug-in car as soon as someone else does, until then they will join the "batteries aren't ready" chorus.

It truly is, not surprisingly, all about the bottom line. Every automaker wants to continue selling only internal combustion engine cars (hybrids included) because they believe that is the best route toward the greatest profitability in the near term. Needless to say this hasn't proven true in GM's case. They couldn't have been in worse shape had they continued even very limited production, and sale, of the EV1. It would have been their Prius, only better.

GM CEO Waggoner Sows Doubt about Volt Debut Date; Volt Ads Continue Unabated

CNNMoney.com reports on an online chat with GM CEO Rick Waggoner.

General Motors might not be able to hit its target to have its breakthrough electric-powered car the Chevrolet Volt in production by 2010...

GM has already started to build advertising campaigns around the Volt, even though in the best-case scenario it is years away from production. It is seen as a way of trying to change public perceptions about the fuel efficiency and environmental responsibility of the U.S. automaker, which is more closely associated with large SUVs or pickup trucks.

Not the way to mark the 100th anniversary of the company. If GM wants to be believed, they need to do more than flap their lips, run hopeful ads and buy dinner for bloggers.

They ought to have used the 100th anniversary to deliver even a few real electric cars, something they actually know how to build. Hell, they could simply sell the few EV1s they still have running around. They could encourage museums and universities with donated, disabled EV1s to rebuild them as electric cars and allow them on the roads. They could make a preliminary, limited run Volt without waiting for "perfect" batteries - say something like the NiMH that worked quite well in the EV1 (and still do in our RAV4 EVs.)

Had GM taken any such actions, some of the continuing disbelief might be dissipated.

Oil Hits $100 a Barrel

NY Times reporting:

Oil prices reached the symbolic level of $100 a barrel for the first time on Wednesday, a long-awaited milestone in an era of rapidly escalating energy demand.

Crude oil futures for February delivery hit $100 on the New York Mercantile Exchange shortly after noon New York time, before falling back slightly. Oil prices, which had fallen to a low of $50 a barrel at the beginning of 2007, have quadrupled since 2003.

Shortly after 2:30 p.m., futures were trading at $99.47, up $3.49 on the day.

Financial Times on Th!nk

Financial Times Deutschland has a report on Th!nk Global. Putting a little flesh on the bones of previous reporting. 10,000 Think City electric cars in 2009. Parts manufacturing in Thailand and Turkey. As previous reported, plan is to sell the car (€25,000) and lease the battery. Zebra batteries first. Online marketing and sales.

Think says it has battery supply contracts with three companies, and is moving into production. It plans to begin selling its cars in Norway, Denmark, Switzerland and the UK next year, with projected sales of 10,000 cars in 2009 and double that by 2011.

One question raised in the story is how Th!nk will fare as established carmakers bring electric cars to market.

With its modest volumes, it also remains unclear how Think will cope when bigger competitors such as Renault/Nissan and Daimler come to market with their own electric cars.

If Think can begin making thousands of cars per year in 2009, I suspect there won't be much competition for years. Subaru's snail's pace production plans are far from ambitious. GM's Vue and Volt plug-ins have no firm date to appear in showrooms. If Nissan or Mercedes are to make a serious electric offering in the same time frame, we'll have to hear something soon.

Subaru to Begin EV Sales in Japan in 2009

Fuji Heavy Industries (FHI) has issued a press release, according to Green Car Congress, announcing that 2009 rather than 2010 will see the sales of the first 100 electric Subarus in Japan. FHI's President Ikuo Mori foresees the price down below $20,00 by 2012 for this subcompact, as production ramps up for the Lithium battery packs.

Electric Smart Car ForTwo Delivered by Mercedes

Mercedes-Benz has delivered the first of 100 electric Smart ForTwos to fleet customers in the UK. Coventry City Council will be using the electric Smart in its fleet.

Smart Car of America has the most complete report, straight from Daimler, with most of the relevant stats. The energy storage is a sodium nickel chloride battery. Same battery the first new Th!nk City cars are said to be using. Only stat missing in the report is the size of the battery pack.

Rated output 30 kW/41 bhp
0-60 km/h 5.7 s (0-37miles in 5.7secs)
Maximum speed approx. 112 km/h (just shy of 70mph)
Range approx. 115 km (just over 71 miles)
Consumption* 12 kWh/100 km
CO2 emissions 0 g/km

Could this herald a serious interest on the part of Mercedes to produce battery-powered vehicles?

Popular Mechanics Takes Aptera for a Drive

This wingless Jetsonian vehicle has seemed to me to be too much design, too much gadgetry, too much website, and not enough practical, buildable car. I thought I could smell the vapor.

Well, Popular Mechanics asked and the Aptera folks let them in. The magazine's Ben Stewart took the all electric car (3 wheeler) for a 20 mile spin in Carlsbad CA. And he came back impressed. There's video, lots of stills and most of the basic stats you'd want to know. And plans for a serial plug-in hybrid. 300mpg, they say. Yowsa! Here's to hoping all they say is true.

•Available 2008
•under $30,000
•120 mile range
•10kWh Lithium pack
•under 1500 pounds
Check it out here.

Electric Car Salute to Al Gore in Oslo

Electric cars, including many Th!nk City cars and at least one RAV4 EV, turned out in large numbers to salute Al Gore, lining Oslo streets as he drove (in a gasser) to receive the Nobel Peace Prize. (click on the photo below to see more photos thanks to ElBil Norge, click on the video image to see Youtube video.)


Electric car advocates know that nothing can take a bigger bite out of greenhouse gas emissions than switching from internal combustion to electric drive. Here's to hoping that Al Gore took a look out the window as he drove past. With the new solar PV on his Tennessee roof, he could do all his Carthage driving truly emitting no greenhouse gases, if, and only if, he drove an electric car. I'm hoping Governor Schwarzenegger takes the former VP and ally on global warming issues for a drive as soon as he takes delivery of his Tesla.

EPA Says No: Dems Get Rolled Again

It took less than 12 hours.

The Democrats got rolled again.

Bush started the day signing the energy bill that Nancy Pelosi called "earth-shattering change in terms of energy policy" and Sierra Club's Carl Pope said "is a clean break with the failed energy policies of the past and puts us on the path toward a cleaner, greener energy future." To get a bill the president would sign, out dropped any challenge to big oil's obscene profits, a national renewable electricity standard, overwhelmingly popular wind and solar tax credits, and plug-in hybrid credits that might truly jumpstart an alternative automotive future.

They decided passing an energy bill and raising CAFE standards was worth any price. And now they've paid it.

They don't know how to lose with dignity and purpose. They could have done a bill, with solar and wind and RPS and plug-in credits and taxes on oil companies to pay for and seen it vetoed. Then when Bush had the EPA kill the CO2 waiver too he'd have looked like the enviro monster he is. Now he disingenuously argues the energy bill provided a 50 state solution, not a patchwork, as the automakers like to say.

So now we have a do-little energy bill and years more litigation.

Did Mayor Bloomberg in China Drive a Miles Javlon?

Autobloggreen is reporting that Mayor Bloomberg has driven the first Miles Automotive highway-legal all-electric car off the production line. What is certain is that he spoke before the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and said

After my remarks, I look forward to going outside and seeing some of the latest-model battery-powered all-electric cars that an American company—Miles Automotive Group—is developing in partnership with the Chinese Automotive Technical and Research Center or ‘CAT-ARC,’ the Chinese Electronic Technology Group Corporation, Lishen Battery Company, and the city of Tianjin.

“I will be joined by the chair of Miles Automotive Group, Miles Rubin, and its chief operating officer, Kevin Kiley. As well as by their Chinese partners: Zhao Hang, director of CATARC; Wang Xi Wen, vice-superintendent of Chinese Electronic Technology Group Corporation; Qin Xing Cai, general manager of Lishen Battery; Liang Rui, deputy general manager at Lishen Battery; and Wu Zhi Qin, general manager of Tianjin Qingyuan Electric Vehicle Company.

“Assembled here in China, the cars they are making can be marketed to drivers in both our nations, and in South America and the European Union, too. The result is a marriage of U.S. and Chinese technology that is taking us forward—toward 100 percent electric-powered vehicles that drastically reduce air pollutants, cut carbon emissions, and are less expensive to operate.

For a while they've said 2009, 120 mile range, $35,000. All good numbers to me. Let's hope we see some prototypes soon. And get some definitive test drive reports, from Mayor Bloomberg or whoever.

Everybody Happy: Bush to Sign Do-little Energy Bill

The opening line of the Detroit News story says all you need to know:

The House approved a stripped-down energy bill Tuesday and sent it to President George Bush, who is expected to sign the legislation.

The headline is a 35mpg CAFE standard for cars produced 13 years from now. Big whoop.

The best stuff in the bill is energy efficiency standards, including phasing out the incandescent light bulb.

The reality, however, is no removal of tax breaks for Big Oil; no 15% renewables standard for utilities; no plug-in hybrid incentives. Incentives for wind and solar were stripped out, as well, according to Sen. Boxer. "We're pretty disappointed," said Rhone A. Resch, president of the Solar Energy Industries Association, which sought an extension of the investment tax credit that expires at the end of next year.

But yes, there is a requirement for five times more ethanol than we now produce. "Clean tech" will have a place to throw some money, even if the environmental benefit is nil, the impact on petroleum usage minor, the impact on food prices unknown. As stated in the Washington Post story today, "For farmers and agribusiness, it is a windfall, providing more support than perhaps even the farm bill." 'Nuf said.

Why Nancy Pelosi calls the bill "a moment of change, of real change" is not yet clear. Most elements that would constitute a progressive energy bill have been dropped out.

I can't help thinking if carmakers are still producing masses of 20something mpg cars and pickups and SUVs in 2020, something envisioned with a 35mpg average, we're in big trouble.

Honestly, though, I think this standard will be overtaken by reality. Once a few plug-in hybrids and electric cars hit the market, and they will long before 2020, the relevance of these standards will disappear in the rearview mirror of reality.

Or you can read someone snarkier and more cyncial about these matters than I, Mark Morford the San Francisco Chronicle columnist.

...because it's Beltway politics and watching it too closely is akin to having your cerebral cortex raped by encephalitic trolls, I've only paid cursory attention to the massive, landmark energy bill that's right now passing like a painful gallstone through Congress and getting snagged here and gutted there and stripped of key provisions over here, all so Dubya won't veto it, given how it might be just too mean to his fat, piggish pals in Big Energy.