Sierra Club California Weighs in for Electric Cars at CARB

The California Air Resources Board's (CARB) monthly meeting today included the adoption of the State Alternative Fuel Plan. The analysis by the California Energy Commission (CEC) and CARB of the smorgasbord of non-petroleum alternatives was mandated by AB 1007. And quite a buffet it is. When I told CEC Commissioner James Boyd a couple of weeks ago at the plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) UC Davis press event that I felt battery electric vehicles (BEV) were not fairly represented, he told me that each "fuel" feels slighted, so they must have done something right.

But it seems clear to me some were more slighted than others. The biofuel folks weren't complaining about their designation as the short term best hope for greenhouse gas and petroleum reduction. Advanced biofuels, plug-in hybrids, hydrogen and fuel cells received the long-term plaudits in the Plan. Natural Gas felt the most aggrieved, and a number of representatives of NG made public comments today asking for greater recognition. And they didn't hesitate to go after the favored alternatives. They pointed out in public comment the particulate flaws in biofuels and the issues unresolved, cost undiminished and promise unfulfilled of hydrogen and fuel cells. Usually NG and hydrogen appear wedded at the hip. H2 is most often produced by cracking natural gas, even if the talk is all about "renewable" hydrogen. A crack indeed.

No one has a bad word to say about plug-in hybrids these days, and they receive favorable mention in the Plan. Not so for full-function battery electric vehicles, which fall victim to extremely unfavorable predictions about their cost, mostly batteries, far into the future. In the Plan, they inexplicably don't fare much better in economic terms than outrageously expensive fuel cell cars, which nonetheless remain the preferred darling, even if the date of commercialization is decades away. Board Member Sperling suggested that the long term prospects of FCVs ought trump the near term benefits of competing technologies.

What was most welcome by this advocate of transportation electrification was the statement by Sierra Club California's Bill Magavern. He questioned the continued preference for hydrogen and fuel cells in the Plan. He proposed that a more logical scenario than any appearing in the document was a pathway from PHEV to BEV. As battery costs drop with the expected market penetration of plug-in hybrids, full BEVs should become marketable true zero emission cars much more rapidly than appears likely with fuel cells. And of course the electric infrastructure is already in place and getting cleaner and more renewable. I couldn't agree more.

Although this Plan was approved, it was referred to by staff as a mere "snapshot" in time of an evolving landscape. Board Member Supervisor Roberts asked for staff to prepared clearer statements of the relative benefits and efficiencies of the various "fuels" and Chair Nichols said she expected biennial if not annual reviews and revisions. While an important statement of the way CARB and CEC see alternative fuels today, it does not seem to be a defining document that binds the alternative fuel options to be pursued in the future.

Renault to Build Electric Cars in Israel?

Associated Press is reporting out of Paris (via Forbes.com) that Renault is "studying a possible plan to build a manufacturing plant for electric cars in Israel, a company spokeswoman said Wednesday." Shai Agassi, an Israeli entrepreneur whose Project Better Place is looking at infrastructure and battery schemes to facilitate electric cars, could be involved in a partnership, according to Renault spokeswoman Rochelle Chimenes.

Volt Project on Track, Says Lutz

Bob Lutz of GM is in LA. He's meeting with journalists and electric drive advocates. The first report I've seen from the LA Auto Show regarding the much anticipated Volt, in the UK's Guardian, says Lutz expects to see road-tests of "a street-drivable" Chevy Volt by the end of Q1 2008. Now talking specifically about a November 2010 showroom launch.

IEEE: Will CARB Take Part in Plug-in Car Revival?

The IEEE Spectrum Magazine for November 07 touts on its cover "Battery or Fuel-Cell Cars? A California Cabal Will Decide." Interesting choice of headlines. Surely a strong argument can be made that something approaching a cabal turned a practical electric-cars-on-the-road mandate into a research and development program for hydrogen fuel cells vehicles.

Carmakers are desirous of delaying the inevitable but problematic move to electric drive. Oil companies shut out of electric markets are exploring biofuels and hydrogen as potential markets they could control. Academics awash in government and corporate grants analyse and research biofuels and hydrogen. The problem with electric is it is here now. Proven, ready to market. No significant need for research. Batteries could always use a nudge, but the 100+ mile battery has existed for over a decade. Price needs to come down by a factor of one or two, not a factor of 100. Economies of scale, baby!

Facts are facts. Not five years ago we had thousands (about 6000) of battery electrics as daily drivers for consumers like you and me and utilities' fleets like PG&E and SCE. Thanks to Plug In America's predecessor DontCrush.com, about 1000 of those cars still drive today on the original batteries using existing electric infrastructure. Their owners love them, and when one appears on the used car market it sells for more than the $42,000 original MSRP.

Also today, instead of thousands more electric cars envisioned by the original ZEV mandate, we have about 200 one million-dollar hydrogen FCVs functioning as demo vehicles, limited by the lack of infrastructure, and lasting the limited 2 to 4 year life of their fuel cell stack.

The IEEE article does a decent job of wending through the ZEV morass. Auto makers still want lots of credit for fuel cells, they just don't want to keep to the agreed timetable. That which they don't kill (EVs in 2003) they hope to delay (FCVs in 2008).

However plug-in cars, both plug-in hybrids and electric cars are seeing a resurgence. Every car maker has announced intentions to plug something in. But they certainly don't want a mandate to do it. Groups such as Plug In America are asking for parity for Zero Emission Vehicles of whatever type. They say the point is ZEV miles on the road. ARB Board member and recipient of millions in fuel cell and hydrogen grants Dan Sperling fears parity will lead auto makers to take the cheaper "easy way," battery electric cars. "Automakers might abandon their fuel-cell programs," he said.

"So what" reply proponents of battery electric cars, citing battery improvements that surpass fuel cell advancements and existing infrastructure supplying domestically produced fuel at a fraction of the cost of gasoline. A ZEV is a ZEV is a ZEV, they point out, and even Toyota admits we won't see FCVs in the showroom until 2030 at the earliest. ARB is meant to put ZEVs on the road, driving, meeting real people's real needs. Only battery cars can do that near term. CARB could nudge that process along as the ZEV program is revised early in 2008. The IEEE article contains a germ of hope:

...thanks to today's climate - economic, political and atmospheric - some consumers are ready to trade range for a car that costs less to run and produces less pollution. CARB Chairwoman Mary Nichols agrees."People are willing to take a chance..."

$98.62

One 11am EST AP report in the NY Times

•U.S. oil supplies fell last week for the third straight period.....
•Stockpiles of gasoline also dropped, the government reported Wednesday...
•Demand for gasoline over the past four weeks was 0.8 percent higher than a year earlier....
•...prices had climbed as high as $98.62 in electronic trading.
•At the pump, gas prices rose nearly 2 cents overnight...
•For the week ending Nov. 2, crude oil inventories fell by 800,000 barrels to 311.9 million barrels, which is 8 percent below year-ago levels, the Energy Department said....
•Stockpiles of gasoline also dropped by 800,000 barrels, or 0.4 percent

Ballard wants out of fuel cells for cars; investors smile

Another sign that fuel cells for cars are history. Ballard Power systems, long time fuel cell hot shot, wants out of the automotive fuel cell business.

The Globe and Mail of Toronto reports that Ballard is hoping to unload this part of the business on Daimler and Ford, which already own 19% and 11% of Ballard respectively. Once viewed as a business worth billions, soon, it will be interesting to see what Daimler and Ford might be willing to pay.

Investors have spoken. Ballard shares are up 10.5% on the news.

Autobloggreen and After Gutenberg have more to say about it.

Of course years ago Geoffrey Ballard said:

"I doubt I will ever see a hydrogen car for personal consumption in a
showroom. I said this years ago and see no reason to change my mind:
The family-owned, garaged vehicle is the last vehicle that's going to
get a fuel cell. "

$97.07

As the price per barrel goes beyond $97, one story in the NY Times reports:
•Bombing in Afghanistan kills 64.
•Attack on pipeline in Yemen.
•Domestic oil inventory to fall.
•Severe weather forecast for North Sea. Oil platforms evacuated.
•Dollar weak.
•Severe weather shuts Mexican ports, disrupts oil supply to US.

$95.93 a barrel

'Nuf said.

Changes Delay Phoenix

Just as major and mid-size auto makers are announcing what seem to be real electric cars for 2009-2010, for example here (Subaru) and here (Mitsubishi iMiev), newly formed independents are finding it difficult to get product out. TeslaMotors' delays have received attention in the blogs and mainstream media. Autobloggreen is reporting what can only be considered major changes in the Phoenix Motors SUT vehicle. New motor and a smaller Altairnano Lithium battery pack. When existing orders are expected to be fulfilled has not been announced.

The Chinese are Coming!

Got2BeGreen reports BYD, a large Chinese firm that is jumping into cars, will be showing a plug-in hybrid, the F6DM, at the Detroit Auto Show. According to this report, it will begin selling next year in China for about $20,000. It is said to be using an iron-based battery, which none of the major world auto-makers is considering.

The Chinese have nothing to lose breaking new ground in the US market. The PHEV and EV market is wide open. Bring it on!!

Corn Belt Mayor Plugs In

GreenOptions blog reports that Mayor RT Rybak of Minneapolis is now driving a plug-in hybrid. His daily drive, a Prius, has been converted.

He's also moving the Minnesota city along a solar fast track. He recognizes that plug-in cars, already cleaner than hybrids or ethanol vehicles and cheaper to fuel, can get even cleaner as the electricity gets greener. It's great to find a progressive Midwestern Democrat who gets it.

Mitsubishi Sees 2009 launch for iMiEV EV

Thomson Financial is reporting that Mitsubishi aims to launch its i-MiEV city electric car one year earlier than expected.

Techon blog from Japan gives more details. 16kWh of Lithium betteries. 160 kilometer range.

Mitsubishi Motors President Osamu Mashiko clearly stated "We will commercialize a small electric vehicle in 2009..."

Soot and Spin: Two Plug-in Paradoxes

Required reading: Bill Moore's EVWorld review and Martin Zimmerman's LA Times piece about their test drives of the Toyota Plug-in Prius and the hydrogen fuel cell Highlander FCHV.

Paradox 1 - Soot: There's an apparent emissions paradox with plug-in hybrids (PHEV): Driving longer distances on battery power means more cold starts as the internal combustion engine (ICE) stops and starts up again after the batteries deplete. Cold starts mean more pollution. The catalytic converter that keeps the ICE from being a gross polluter in conventional cars and hybrids however, isn't kept warm by the continual embrace of an ever-churning engine in a hybrid with all-electric range. This catch-22 - you need the polluting engine running to keep the emissions mitigation running - has regulators including the California Air Resources Board (ARB) frowning upon PHEV conversions. It also spreads doubt about the enviro bona fides of plug-ins. Third party converters have spent time and resources tweaking their plug-in hybrids to meet ARB testing written with gasoline-only hybrids in mind.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to offer solutions. A supplemental electric heater comes right to mind. But you have to want to solve the problem. Third-party and DIY converters can't muck with every system on a car. They are busy proving, despite automaker resistance, that the plug-in hybrid concept is worth pursuing. And these advocates have successfully prodded Toyota to dangle a concept PHEV before our eyes.

The automakers, including Toyota, that are not interested in rushing to market with plug-in cars never tired of suggesting that conventional gasoline-only hybrids are cleaner than plug-ins. Yet according to Bill Moore's report in EVWorld on Toyota's own PHEV Prius, Toyota solved the cold start dilemma with "a vacuum bottle of sorts on the Prius that stores a heated fluid for up to three days and is used to pre-warm the converter, thus reducing cold start emissions." (UPDATE: Felix Kramer of Calcars informs me that the vacuum bottle is standard on 2004-2008 Prius.)

Toyota undoubtedly was testing this and perhaps other solutions even as they toyed with CARB's emissions sensitivities to retard regulators' interest in plug-ins. After all the system gaming of the ZEV mandate over the years, it is past time for CARB to recognize an automaker ploy to delay the zero-emission possibilities of plug-in options for what it is. The commonsense truth that emissions decrease with greater electric drive capability has been willfully confused for years now by automakers. CARB ought to tap into some of its bottomless reservoir of technological optimism applied to hydrogen and fuel cells when considering obstacles to plug-ins.

Paradox 2 - Spin: The automakers don't want regulators telling them what to do, even if they are going to do it. And they don't want consumers demanding that which they don't (yet) want to produce. The automakers aren't simply toying with regulators, as in the emissions example, to forestall regulations. They are, of course, spinning journalists, and thus, the public, to manage expectations and desires. Thus we endure the paradox that the less complex, less expensive, nearer-term useful vehicle (EV/PHEV) is perceived as not yet ready, yet the impossibly costly and complicated and inefficient and useless in the real world car (H2/FCV) gives off the whiff of green perfection and inevitability.

Automakers have ensured that perceived problems, technological and otherwise, with plug-ins have received outsized attention. They could make PHEVs and EVs today, but they don't want to. Large problems regarding hydrogen and fuel cell technology, get diminished. They may or may not ever market FCVs, but they hold out the promise of the "perfectly green" car. Plug-in cars have been under attack while a love affair with hydrogen and fuel cells has been well promoted.

To take one example, batteries. The NiMH batteries (same chemistry as in every Prius, including the PHEV under review here) which take my Toyota RAV4 EV over 100 miles using 10 year old technology and existing electric infrastructure and cost perhaps $20,000 in minimal production numbers, aren't considered ready for prime time and are often said to be too expensive. (Both California regulators and automakers make this claim.) Yet somehow hydrogen & fuel cells, lacking infrastructure and costing perhaps $1 million per car, offer enough promise to warrant advertising (here, here, here, here) and significant state resources.

Toyota, the biggest hybrid manufacturer, has been compelled to respond to the commonsense plea for a plug-in hybrid. Thus the PHEV test drive for journalists. But they need to manage expectations. They ensured that its plug-in hybrid did not receive too much undiluted attention by pairing the PHEV for demonstration with, again, its oft-test driven FCHV. And that's why a mere two cars will be tested in California over three years, studied by UC researchers, with $1 million in state funding, to determine consumer reaction.

We can see how this plays out in how both Bill Moore and Martin Zimmerman wrote about their visit to Toyota's proving grounds. Toyota ought to be pleased with the tone of both stories. Both came away with a sense that the near-term viable vehicle, the PHEV, still has work to be done, while the long-term vehicle of questionable viability was truly fabulous. Bill Moore writes:

Toyota may still be learning on the PHEV Prius, but it clearly has its act together on this vehicle (the Highlander FCHV).

Now Zimmerman:

Truth be told, I think I was a bit spoiled by the hydrogen fuel-cell Toyota Highlander I tried out just before the Prius test runs...It was smooth as silk and brimming with torque.

Both reporters recognize that these fuel cell gems, seductive though they be, aren't going to be sold in showrooms any time soon. Zimmerman writes:

Too bad that there are only a few dozen in existence and that if you could actually buy one -- which you can't -- it would have a sticker price of about $1 million. Maybe, as some critics like to say, hydrogen is the fuel of the future and always will be.

Now Moore:

...for all the FCHV's advances, it seems everyone at Toyota recognizes that fuel cells remain a distant dream. Even if Toyota succeeds in lowering costs to 1/100th of their current level, while improving the durability of the stacks to the equivalent of 150,000 miles, the problem of infrastructure and sustainable hydrogen production present daunting obstacles...

Both reporters gave us honest, useful stories about the cars. I am thrilled that Toyota is working on a plug-in. I am thrilled that each writer put hydrogen and fuel cells in some context.

However, unfortunately green-minded consumers are again left confused. What is possible? What is preferable? What can, what should, car companies be making?

"Let one hundred flowers bloom" said Vijay Vaitheeswaran recently in San Francisco to promote his book Zoom, The Global Race to Fuel the Car of the Future. It is unfortunate that environmental organizations and concerned writers continue to take Chairman Mao's advice when considering the choices facing us. Surely if we study and fund and chat about all the options before us - biodiesel, ethanol, hydrogen, fuel cells, electricity - we will find our salvation, they suggest. I'm afraid not. We haven't got the time or money.

Electric cars have been so beaten up over the last decade that often electricity isn't even considered an alternative fuel. As in this NY Times story entitled Challenging Gasoline from a few days ago. Yet the hard cold reality is that unless we begin to move to grid electricity for most driving, none of the the other fuels will ever stand a chance of contributing to the end of the petroleum era.

$92.22

NY Times reports:

Oil Prices Continue to Rise

$91.86 per barrel at Friday's close.

A little context: oil at its lowest this year? $50.48 a barrel on January 18, 2007.

Plug-in hybrid by who?

The Fisker Coachbuild name meant nothing to me, but I'm not really an auto geek. We recently read that this premium automobile design company intends to offer a luxury plug-in hybrid.

In a joint venture with Quantum Technologies, retaining the Fisker moniker, Fisker Automotive now has a one page website. It sort of shows the vehicle, appropriately if obnoxiously dubbed ECO-CHIC, they will debut at the Detroit Auto Show. Autobloggreen took me to Carscoop for what they describe as "the first official image." Intending to sell for under $100,000, an initial production run of 15,000 trumpeted in their press release would be most welcome by the market waiting for plug-in cars.

Something more affordable would be nice, but if it's got a plug on it, Plugs and Cars says "Bring it on!"

WSJ on Electric Possibilities

Joseph White, Wall St Journal Detroit bureau chief, is writing about electric cars again, this time about the majors. He's in Tokyo reporting from the big Japanese Motor Show.

Hybrid or All-Electric? Car Makers Take Sides

Nissan-Renault continue talking up small all-electric cars. Toyota and GM are continuing down their differing hybrid paths. Honda, the quintessential internal combustion company, is lobbing criticism at hybrids, a market Toyota exploited better than Honda. White suggests Honda is lining up with Nissan, seeing a future not in hybrids but rather electric cars. Perhaps the lithium batteries upon with Honda depends to make it's FCV function will actually see the light of day in a full-function battery electric car.

"My feeling is that the kind of plug-in hybrid currently proposed by different auto makers can be best described as a battery electric vehicle equipped with an unnecessary fuel engine and fuel tank," [Honda President and CEO Takeo] Fukui said at the company's research-and-development center.

Is Honda's Fuel Cell vehicle a battery electric with an unnecessary, expensive, impractical, inefficient fuel cell stack and hydrogen storage tank?

Toyota Plugging in with Nickel Metal Hydride

Popular Mechanics got a look and briefing on Toyota's own plug-in Prius. And they said it couldn't or wouldn't be done. Or it would take Lithium to make it worthwhile. Well, surprise, surprise:

"Toyota has the knowledge and experience with nickel metal hydride. And we have to use the battery we know best, in terms of overall performance," said [Yoshitaka] Asakura [Project General Manager of Toyota's Hybrid Vehicle System Engineering Development Division.]

The prototype PHEV's use two current generation Prius battery packs sandwiched together and modified to deliver a greater ability to charge and discharge. In a presentation, Asakura said the prototypes can operate on electric power for a range of about 7 miles..."

I hope someone tells Mr Asakura about the NiMH batteries Toyota used in the RAV4 EV. Actually achieved over 15 times greater range back in 1997.

Toyota • Moving Backward?

Well, let's just say catching up with itself.

BMW H2 BS

Terry Tamminen, Arnold's green guru, showed up at the Santa Monica AltCar Show in a BMW Hydrogen 7. Mr. "Lives Per Gallon" ought to be ashamed to lend his name to BMW's greenwashing. But of course he's been hydrogen's biggest booster, despite its inefficiencies and impracticalities. You can't beat a free car and free fuel. Especially a super luxury car that switches to gasoline with the flick of a finger.

The gasoline-only production version of this car, the 7 Series, is available today for between $75,800 and $122,600. With hydrogen as a fuel option, the car is so expensive and made in such limited numbers it has no MSRP and is not rated on the EPA Green Vehicle Guide for 2007 or 2008. (The 7 Series has get a combined sub-20mpg and has an air pollution index of 6 out of 10. For comparison purposes, the 2002 Toyota RAV4 EV plug-in electric car has a mpg(equivalent) of over 100; and a best possible air pollution index of 10.)

Despite an advertising budget that rivals available models, the Hydrogen 7 is not for sale. This car is advertised on hip television shows, Stewart and Colbert for example, with the clever tagline "Ready for the world when the world is ready." As if the world needs to catch up to BMW's environmental leadership! In reality, pricey Madison Avenue green gloss for the disntinctly ungreen line of beemers.

And some say electric cars are too expensive. Hell, even the Tesla Roadster must cost less than half the Hydrogen 7 and it can be filled up for a few bucks virtually anywhere.

Nothing to See Here - Oil Prices Retreat.....from $90.07

Forbes 12:43pm ET: Oil retreats from today's record highs around 90 usd as traders lock profits

Bloomberg Crude Oil Falls From Record on Signs U.S. Supplies Are Adequate

Associated Press Oil Futures Retreat From $90 Record

CNN Money Oil retreats from $90, but gas keeps climbing

Oil Hits New High - Nears $90 per Barrel

NY Times reports Record Price of Oil Raises New Fears.