Lutz Chats Volt with "Fellow Bloggers"

Bob Lutz, GM CEO, sat down to chat with some bloggers at the NY Auto Show, and PODTECH has the video. Well worth a listen. Lutz responds to the sense that GM might be pulling back from its commitment to the Volt that resulted from Sharon Terlep's Detroit News article a month or so ago. (My take at the time here.)

Lutz says the Volt is no "pr stunt," that they intend to have a working model by the end of the year, and are making a diesel version with a European body to be shown in Frankfort. While the goal is still a 2010 release, everything hinges on the Lithium battery thought to be the essential heart of the Volt. And there's the rub. Must the battery really be lithium to get this radically different automobile off the drawing board and into the showroom? Or is lithium the new hydrogen? Simply the latest industry stalling tactic.

Asked why not Nickel Metal Hydride batteries in the Volt, at least to start, he says "NiMH just doesn't do it." It would take more weight to reach 40 miles, he says. And nickel mining is such dirty business we ought move right to benign lithium. But hold on. What's so sacrosanct about 40 miles? And is Lutz - purveyer of Hummers and Escalades - suggesting the environmental consequences of nickel mining are so great we must wait for lithium? Interestingly, Lutz says GM is being approached by NiMH manufacturers to use this proven battery chemistry in the Volt. And if Lithium proves problematic, he says GM will again consider NiMH.

This makes no sense. If you've got the desire to introduce a radically different car, why not simplify the effort by using the best available mature battery technology in the inevitably small-run first generation? If you've got hundreds of millions of trouble-free NiMH miles in hybrids and electric cars, why bet the bank on relatively untested if promising lithium?

Perhaps Lutz's mistaken impressions about the EV1 and electric cars color his understanding of what NiMH can achieve. (Or perhaps GM's disinformation campaign about the successes of the EV1 and its NiMH batteries is still in force.) He says the EV1 got 60-70 miles (actually double that), and very few were sold (actually none were sold) because people were afraid of getting stuck in LA traffic watching their charge go down ("stuck in traffic" requires virtually no energy.) Could Lutz not know the range of an EV1?

Lutz decries the lack of interest by the federal government in the "transformational technology" represented by the Volt.

We're curiously disappointed with all the talk about CO2 in Washington and we have to put industry's feet to the fire and improve fuel economy. Nobody really asks wouldn't it be smarter to put more energy into what you guys are doing with the Volt.

Congressional efforts (and he might add environmental leadership at NRDC, UCS and the Sierra Club) are stuck on gasoline efficiency when it's time to move to technologies with the promise of getting us off petroleum.

"We are beyod the point of diminishing returns on the internal combustion engine. It's time to make a paradigm shift."

Lutz expresses his belief in the benefits of transitioning to the electric grid, lessening our need for liquid fuels by using them merely as range extenders for an electric car. And I couldn't agree more. Does he mean it? Or is he simply asking to feed again at the federal trough, millions for lithium research much like the PNGV or various hydrogen and fuel cell research subsidies that have brought us neither fuel choices nor even high mileage gasoline vehicles.

If Lutz means it, GM should be willing to meet higher CAFE requirements with electric miles in the Volt, rather than ethanol flex-fuel loopholes.

If Lutz means it, GM should have no objection to a reinvigorated ZEV mandate in California. If he means it, GM should be working with CARB right now to include plug-in hybrids with all-electric range in the revised mandate.

If Lutz means what he says about the great benefits of the "E-Flex architecture," (what's more commonly known as a serial hybrid,) GM would demonstrate some real e-flexibility, and build a NiMH Volt now. GM doesn't need a fancy new package. And it doesn't need to have a $20,000 MSRP. There is a market for plug-in cars now.

Plugin Hybrids to save Big Three, Lee Iacocca

From a new interview in Fortune and his new upcoming book, "Where Have all the Leaders Gone?":

What can the auto industry do?
"Plug-in hybrids. I think they're virtually here now..."

Full Interview here:
I don't think I could have said it better myself. I think we are going to be hearing lots on Lee and his book. Particularly the parts where he blasts detroit lack of leadership and also particularly the Bush administration.

World Wide Lexicon: Help Make This Blog Multi-Lingual!

We're proud to announce that we are one of the first sites to join the Worldwide Lexicon (www.worldwidelexicon.org). It's a new service that will enable us to publish in dozens of languages. WWL is based on a simple idea that websites like ours have bilingual readers without knowing it. WWL enables you to contribute and edit translations to any languages you speak. WWL is free, and is open source, and if you're into language, it's a lot of fun.

To contribute, just go to http://demo.worldwidelexicon.org. Look for Plugs and Cars. Beneath the title, you'll see a list of 2 or 3 letter language codes (for example, ES = spanish). Click on the code for the language you speak. You'll be asked to translate the site's title first, then you'll see a list of articles to be translated. Click on an article, and then you will go to a page or form to view or edit the article's title, description (synopsis) and full text. If you want to use a machine translation service and then edit that text, you can click on CHEAT to go to Google Translate to cut and paste.

The goal of the worldwide lexicon project is ambitious, to eliminate the language barrier by making it possible, and easy, for people like you to contribute translations about whatever websites you like and want to share with people in other countries. We think this is the beginning of a big thing, and we're proud to be one of the first testers.

Gasoline, Ethanol, Crude Oil Up in Price

AP reports:

Gasoline futures rose 3.31 cents to settle at $2.1918 per gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Meanwhile, alternative fuel ethanol hit a 7-month high, corresponding to an overall rise in gas prices since last August.

Ethanol futures rose 4.3 cents to settle at $2.280 on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Light, sweet crude for May delivery rose $1.84 to close at $63.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for May rose 88 cents to $68.72 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

NY Times using Plug-in Hybrid Van

Editor & Publisher reports the NY Times has taken delivery of a long-awaited plug-in hybrid Sprinter Van from Daimler/Chrysler. It will perform everyday duties.

The van, a Dodge Sprinter PHEV, will be kept at the paper’s printing plant in College Point, Queens and will be used to transport papers.

I hope David Pogue gets down there to check it out. Not as sexy as the Tesla, but a very practical use of electricity.

Silicon Valley V2G Plug-in Hybrid Demo

Sen. Barbara Boxer attended a Silicon Valley Alternative Energy Summit today and PG&E was there with its plug-in hybrid Prius.

Green Wombat reports on the Vehicle to Grid (V2G) capability demonstrated by PG&E.

The modified Toyota Prius was plugged into a into a standard PG&E meter outside Advanced Micro Devices's Sunnyvale headquarters. As the car's lithium ion battery powered a bank of lights and a portable heater, the meter began to run backwards.

Add some solar panels to the mix and you've got the makings of a comprehensive policy: prioritize renewable electricity, plug-in cars and V2G. I hope Sen. Boxer had an epiphany.

Bush's Near Hydrogen Oops Moment

The Detroit News Autos Insider reports on Ford CEO Alan Mulally's oops moment about Bush's oops moment.

"I violated all the protocols. I touched the President....This is all off the record, right?"

Hydrogen Hyped: BMW Does Pogue

Why are even the smartest journalists unable to get beyond the hype when it comes to automobiles and alternative fuels? David Pogue has a respected, weekly technology column in the NY Times. In addition, "David is an Emmy-winning correspondent for CBS News, a frequent contributor to NPR's "Morning Edition," creator of the Missing Manual series of computer books, and father of three." He's got cred.

On March 29, Pogue blogged about The Future of Hydrogen Cars. His blog only once before (in my quick search) discussed alternative fuels for cars. Automotive technology is clearly not his balliwick. But like most of us, he drives a car, knows petroleum isn't forever, and receives periodic wake-up calls. One altfuel epiphany Pogue blogged in May, 2006 came watching The Amazing Race 9 (CBS) in Brazil, where sugar cane-based ethanol has eliminated petroleum imports and reduced pollution. Why can't we do something like that, he wondered. We're richer and more technologically advanced than Brazil, aren't we? He concludes his blogpost:

Dudes–no matter what color your political flag, doesn’t everyone agree that pollution is bad, high fuel prices are bad, and that the oil reserves are going to run out eventually? In his State of the Union address in January, President Bush said that “Our goal is to make this new kind of ethanol practical and competitive within six years.”

Man, I sure hope so.

Now in his recent blog entry he all but swallows whole BMW's solo voyage down the liquid hydrogen hypeway. BMW used the TED Conference, an annual convening of the technological glitterati, to make an "off-campus" presentation to these opinion makers.

On the second day of the show, attendees were invited to attend a lunch-hour presentation by Dr. Frank Ochmann, the head of BMW’s clean-energy development project, who had flown in from Munich for the event.

The investment paid off. A high brow plug for a corporate fantasy. The bamboozlement surrounding alternative fuels continues apace. The one energy infrastructure that rivals petroleum in its reach, the electric grid, is seemingly invisible for its ubiquitousness. Mr. Pogue, and the public at large, ought to be better informed.

As Pogue accurately concludes his post,

Meanwhile, the biggest obstacles are presented by people’s attitudes, not technology: “Oh, that’ll never work.”

Guess what? It’s going to have to work. Sooner or later, hydrogen, or something like it, is all we’ll have to work with.

That "something like it" is electricity. I invite Mr. Pogue to take a ride "back to the future" in my 2002 Toyota RAV4 EV.

The column continues to generate interesting comments, many from electric car advocates, and I hope he returns to the subject. All he needs to know about the difficulties and expense of creating a hydrogen infrastructure and the viability and desirability of plug-in cars is in the many astute comments of his readers.

Bush Uses Alternative Fuels

An imperiled attorney general, an unpopular war, a hung-over housing market and a presidential approval level of 32 percent: White House officials took all that into consideration and made their decision.

They would have President Bush do another event promoting cellulosic ethanol.

Thus begins Dana Milbank's story in the Washington Post today.

Alternative fuels has become the issue Bush returns to in order to take our eyes off the various disasters befalling both the administration and the country. Six altfuel events for the Prez already this year. According to Milbank:

[Bush's] role as uncompensated pitchman for gasoline alternatives makes perfect sense: If anybody needs a new fuel source, it is George W. Bush in 2007.

Unfortunately, the President can't even muster feigned enthusiasm at these events. The plug-in hybrid and Phoenix showing on the White House lawn seems a flash in the pan. Certainly not part and parcel of a serious exploration of the potential of grid electricity as an alternative to oil.

The president, escorted by the chief executives from Detroit's Big Three, arrived 20 minutes late for yesterday's South Lawn event. Eight minutes later, he was on his way back inside.

The discussion stayed on biofuels. Nothing about raising CAFE, or the "electrification of the automobile" much touted by GM's Volt booster Bob Lutz, who wasn't present. As reported in today's NY Times story about the event,

“If the goal is to reduce oil imports and improve the environment, the opportunity is first of all in ethanol, biodiesel,” [GM's] Mr. Wagoner told reporters after the meeting. The executives spent “very little time” talking about mileage rules, he said."

And nothing about the Volt, I presume.

What up with GM's Plug-in hybrid Volt?

"GM tries to unplug Volt hype" is not the headline I've been hoping to see out of Motor City this spring. But there it is in a Detroit News Autos Insider piece today. Just weeks after announcing production, perhaps, in 2010, the industry's hometown paper lets us know this is no done deal.

The Volt grabbed headlines, lit up online chat boards and dominated the buzz at the auto show in Detroit.
There's just one problem: The Volt may never get built.

GM continues to spread the gospel of the Volt. The recent "presser" to explain how all things Volt are coming along was very well-attended. Interest in plug-in cars of all sorts is real and growing. However, as the article points out, it feels like a trip down a well-traveled green road to nowhere.

The auto industry has disappointed before when it comes to green technology. DaimlerChrysler AG promised a production fuel-cell vehicle by 2004, but couldn't deliver despite spending $1 billion on the technology. And little came of a $1.5 billion taxpayer-funded effort, called the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV), to build an 80-miles-per-gallon car. Last year, Ford Motor Co. took an image beating when it backed away from a pledge to put 250,000 hybrids on the road by 2010.

The story essentially asks whether the Volt is intended for production, simply a green gesture, or perhaps both. Arguably, the Prius hybrid halo has enabled Toyota's more recent play for the American's profitable big SUV and truck market.

Is GM just looking for its halo or a future? Regardless, GM ought to be producing the Volt now with the best available batteries, a PHEV-version of the NiMH in every hybrid on the road and which took the EV1 140 miles between charges. Laptops didn't wait for Lithium, and neither should cars.

Woolsey Gets Snarky and Plugs Plug-ins

James Woolsey gets snarky in today's Wall Street Journal. page 11.

The Mountain and Mohammed: Halliburton Moves HQ to United Arab Emirates

The NY Times website reports that Dick Cheney's old stomping grounds, oil services giant Halliburton, is moving their world headquarters out of friendly Texas into even friendlier Dubai, one of the United Arab Emirates. Nearer to the where oil action is, and "an Arab boomtown where free-market capitalism has been paired with some of the world's most liberal tax, investment and residency laws," according to this AP article. This should help their bottom line, suffering under the numerous Bush/Cheney time no-bid contracts. And by the way, "Federal investigators last month alleged Halliburton was responsible for $2.7 billion of the $10 billion in contractor waste and overcharging in Iraq."

Phoenix Rising?: All-electric SUT Debut in LA

Phoenix Motor Cars in California has been working with lithium battery manufacturers AltairNano to come out with a new all-electric car. The car had a coming out in LA last week. Noel Adams blogs the car and the stars. Surf around his site EVFinder.com, and you just might find yourself an electric vehicle.

She Wrote the Book on Plug-in Hybrids

Sherry Boschert has a piece in Sunday's San Francisco Chronicle Insight section. Read it here.

Plug-in Hybrids in Toyota's Future, Jim Press Tells Reuters; Desires Joint OEM Battery Research

Reuters reports on an interview with Toyota North American President Jim Press that Toyota Motor Corp. is working on developing a plug-in hybrid vehicle and is open to joining with other automakers in battery development.

Echoing its American counterparts Ford and GM, Toyota bemoans the unavailability of batteries which will take their plug-ins half as far as their own electric cars could manage just 5 years ago.

Press added the biggest challenge would be developing the next-generation battery, which Toyota is now working on internally. "We would be quite open to any kind of sharing," Press said of a possible alliance on battery development with other automakers.

A tad unusual, if you think car companies compete. Of course, the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles already taught us how to bring the car companies together, spend tax money and do nothing to foster efficiency other than spur on the Japanese. Who figured out how to do it without threatening their own growth or profits or offering an alternative to oil.

While proposing joining with the Americans to stall or shelve battery development, Press also said Toyota would not be opposed to buying existing plants from other automakers as it expands its capacity in North America.

Press's interview has me seeing lots more Tundras and nary a plug-in. Prove me wrong, Jim.

WNBC TV Does Plug-in Hybrids Right

You've got to see this series of local TV new reports by Chuck Scarborough out of WNBC New York. The Defense Hawk Frank Gaffney and Environmental Entrepreneur Felix Kramer are brought together by the logic of plug-in cars. The best local news report I've seen on the subject.

Three great reports, including the full posted interview with TeslaMotors CEO Martin Eberhard.

Plug-in hybrids good for the grid, good for the driver, XCel Energy/NREL Study Finds

PhysOrg.com reports on Xcel Energy's study (with the Dept of Energy NREL lab) on the potential effect of plug-in hybrids on the electrical grid and emissions.

Xcel Energy announced the results of a six-month study related to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and how an increase in their popularity may affect Colorado. The study found that PHEVs may result in a reduction of the overall expense of owning a vehicle and, with the help of smart-grid technologies, eliminate harmful vehicle emissions by up to 50 percent.

NREL’s program was able to simulate adding vehicles to the roads in large increments, under real driving conditions, simulating an increase in the market penetration of these vehicles. The study revealed that these cars, each equipped with a 9 kilowatt-hour battery, could reduce overall CO2 vehicles emissions by half. They could also save owners more than $450 in fuel costs each year compared to a traditional combustion engine vehicle.

Hybrid Fans to Toyota: The Next Step is Plug-in Hybrids

This year Toyota makes its SUVs and trucks even larger. Toyota increasingly devotes precious energy contained in hybrid batteries charged with expensive gasoline to higher power output rather than efficiency. What do people actually want? Toyota's own "Question of the Month" in the Hybrid Synergy View Newsletter, asked.

Plug-in hybrids - 39%
Higher fuel economy - 37%
Alternative fuel hybrid - 18%
Higher power output - 6%

The desire of 94% would be fulfilled by a plug-in hybrid.

To Toyota's credit, they published the results. To it's discredit, they seem dedicated to being second and probably best with plug-ins.

(Hat Tip to Felix Kramer at the Electric Auto Association Annual Meeting in Palo Alto, CA this past Saturday.)

Bush and Begley Sitting in a Tree; Prez to Look Over Ed's Electric Pickup & A123 Plug-in Hybrid

The Detroit News reports that an all-electric pickup and a plug-in hybrid will pay a visit to the White House today. How Phoenix Motor Cars, which has been making the altfuel circuit with its AltairNano powered pickup, found itself on Bush's radar isn't clear. A123 Systems, a much larger company which is providing batteries to GM for possible use in the Vue and Volt, will be showing off a plug-in hybrid powered by its Lithium batteries. Will Bush get the first view of a plug-in Vue?

The story makes clear the Big Three are not involved in the meeting. Interestingly, the story veers off electricity and on to ethanol midway through. Detroit is both very close to corn country, and clearly would rather make flex-fuel internal combustion vehicles to beginning the transition to electricity. The Prez seems to get the commonsense value of the plug-in hybrid as the truely flexible vehicle - one you can plug "right into the wall" as he famously said last year.

Prius drops to 48mpg; How will 2008 Prius get 80mpg? Plug-in hybrid?

The National Center for Policy Analysis reports: CAR M.P.G. RATINGS GOING DOWN. The cars aren't actually getting worse mileage, but the government's new tests going into effect next year more accurately reflect real-world driving.

Fuel-saving gasoline-electric hybrid cars don't save as much fuel as thought, according to new government fuel-economy ratings available to the public for the first time.

The new ratings go into effect beginning with 2008 models, a few of which will soon be on sale. But now it's possible to tell what rating 2007 and older models would get using the 2008 standards.

Toyota's Prius, the best-known and best-selling gas-electric car in the United States, drops from a 60 mpg rating under the current system to 48 miles per gallon in the city under the 2008 testing procedure -- a 20 percent decline

Its highway mileage rating falls about 12 percent, to 45 mpg.

The Ford Escape hybrid, which uses a gasoline-electric drive system similar to Toyota's, goes down about 12 percent.

So how will the 08 Prius, rumored to get upward of 80 mpg achieve it? Can it be done without making the high-mileage leader a plug-in hybrid?

Tesla to build new EV plant in New Mexico!

And GM keeps telling us the batteries aren't ready.

AP via the Detroit News
Link

Albuquerque, N.M., to be site for electric car production


"New Mexico's biggest city will be home to an automobile assembly facility for Tesla Motors' all-electric, four-door, five-passenger sedan that will sell for at least $50,000."

"The $35 million facility on Albuquerque's west side will mean 400 new jobs, Gov. Bill Richardson said."

"The company plans to produce at least 10,000 cars a year at the Albuquerque plant, with the first cars scheduled to be ready in the fall of 2009. They would be able to travel 250 miles before being recharged, officials said."

Iran's Oil Woes; An Arab Electric Car?

Today the Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reports "Soaring Energy Use Puts Oil Squeeze on Iran."

Iran may start rationing gasoline as soon as next month, and its oil exports could dry up in as little as a decade. The stagnation of Iran's oil industry presents a potential crisis for the country and the global oil market.

Iran is one of the countries earning tons of cash on its oil exports, but its burgeoning population is using an increasing share of the nation's oil production. What it uses it can't sell. As we all know, Iran is investing in nuclear power to provide a larger chunk of its future energy requirements. I'd rather see attempts to harvest mideast sun, but there ain't no solar bomb, so geopolitics dictates their energy direction. Nuclear or solar, if Iranians won't consider electricty for cars, perhaps neighboring Arab states will.

A report out of tiny Abu Dhabi suggests some of the oil rich may be looking considering alternatives to oil for cars.

Khalid Abdullah Al Bu Ainnain, Chairman of Baynuna, told Gulf News in an interview that the group has signed a deal with a French company to export 10,000 electric cars.

"We are cooperating with the giant French group Dassault to produce an electric car which can operate on clean power with a speed of 160 km/h," he said.

Dassault has been dabbling in EVs for years via its Société de Véhicules Electriques. Prototypes are built and press releases appear every so often, but that's it. According to their website, "S.V.E....plans to put a vehicle on the market in 2007." That's clearly not happening.

But could a most unlikely alliance with Arabic enterprise result in actual electric cars being produced?

Senators Ask Who Killed the Electric Car?

Two Senators asked the question yesterday at the hearing on global warming convened by Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA). First, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt) posed the question to a panel of industry leaders. PG&E's Peter Darbee, its president, CEO and chairman of the board, let the committee know that plug-in hybrid cars could play a huge role in lowering carbon emissions. And assured the Senators that the electric grid, as it is, could charge millions of cars today displacing millions of gallons of petroleum.

Sen. Boxer, clearly moved by the images in the film of flattened EV1s, suggested that a panel of auto execs appear before the committee to do some explaining. She suggested Sen. Sanders chair such a hearing. Can I reserve a front-row seat?

First step: Boxer and Sanders ought to sign on to the DRIVE Act (S.339), one piece of legislation pushed by Set America Free and plug-in car advocates, that begins to take electricity seriously as an alternative transportation fuel.

Welcome Rancher Dave

With the post below, Rancher Dave joins Plugs and Cars. RancherD along with his wife, Heather, are true heroes of the electric car movement. Read all about their effort to save their Ford RangerEV here.

Brian Howey Get's it

I love it when someone outside our EV and hybrid world truly begins to understand the connections at play here. I also hope for his next column he finds out some more about the exciting things going on with Plugin-hybrids, like the Chevrolet Volt and other pure EV's being announced and driven currently.

Read Brian Howey's entire article here, but below is the last comment that sort of sums things up.

"Now, watch Who Killed the Electric Car? the documentary about the zero emission EV1 that everyone from GM to the White House caved on and tell me if you think this generation of political leaders has served America well, or whether we'll be condemned to repeat the blunders of the past. I will follow up with another column"

Brian, we look forward to your next column. Give us or pluginamerica.com a buzz and someone can let you know about the latest things that are going on. The pressure is mounting on the industry... Finally... We hope :)

Toyota Hybrid Breakthrough! One-mile EV Range Highlander Hybrid!

AutoBlogGreen has the details on the '08 Highlander, and it includes an EV mode! Now you will be able to move the car across the street for street cleaning days without using gasoline. Useful to be sure, but more a green merit badge on a $30,000+ SUV with real world mpg still under 30 than a significant environmental choice.

Mistakenly blaming the battery type (NiMH) for the meager all-electric performance, AutoBlogGreen remains as confused as most auto journalists about plugs and cars, plug-in hybrids, electric cars, and batteries. The 24 NiMH batteries in my Toyota RAV4 EV take the car 120 miles without gasoline. Toyota could deliver a plug-in hybrid highlander, get 20 miles all-electric and 75 mpg using NiMH today! Would a Lithium-ion battery be better? Theoretically, yes. But they don't have the hundreds of millions of miles of trouble-free real world experience as NiMH. That's why every hybrid on the road uses NiMH.

We recognize the need for cars that can use something other than petroleum for national security and environmental reasons. We need to be able to buy plug-in hybrids and electric cars now with the technology we have, not he technology we wish we had. We can't afford to wait for the perfect battery, any more than we can wait for the miracles required to make hydrogen and fuel cell technology viable.

Bush Budget: Plug-ins Hybrids, Not So Much

The Detroit News has the alternative fuel breakdown in the president's budget request, and it isn't pretty. Increases for hydrogen fuel cell research from $289 million in FY 2007 to $309 million in FY 2008. "Automakers already have begun lobbying for the Bush Administration and Congress to support further research funding after the $1.2 billion program expires next year." I guess that wasn't enough to actually make a marketable, economic car. (Could of had 28,571 RAV4 EVs @$42,000 for the same $1.2 billion.)

The automakers wanted a new $500 million pot for battery research. Bush proposes $81 million, which includes $17 million for plug-in hybrid battery grants.

Honestly, much as I want the federal and state efforts to move toward batteries and electricity, we don't really need pure "research." We need cars. Plug-in hybrids and electric cars built with the best possible, most economic, available-now technology. I say take the proposed $390 million in Bush's budget, and give 75,000 people a $5000 grant for the purchase of a plug-in hybrid or electric car. And use the $15 million left over to educate Americans on why it is in their personal and the national security interest to buy a plug-in car.

Enough fooling around already with fuel cell fantasies such as the three profiled in AutoBlogGreen's recent post on Ford's FC concept cars. The downsides of fuel cell technology is evident in this straight forward, sympathetic reporting on these concept cars. Regarding the FC Focus and FC Explorer: "key-on, wait 15 seconds for the stack to power up, put it in drive and off you go." $1.2 billion of our money and you wait 15 seconds? Alas, they've found way around that problem with the Edge. "Because the FC Edge runs primarily off the battery, as long as there is some charge, there is no waiting." (Wow! Just like my Ford Th!nk City confiscated in 2004! ) Another shortcoming I really don't understand: The FC Edge "doesn't maximize the amount of regen available, [but] it does eliminate the problem of blending regen with friction braking." (My 2002 Toyota RAV4 EV blends regen and friction just fine, thank you. As did most if not all of the electric cars produced in the '90s.)

With all sorts of fuel cell double-talk and hydrogen hype, our policies and tax dollars have been led astray and flushed away. But technology ultimately brings us back to what is actually possible, out of what Toyota FC guru Bill Reinert calls "Disneyland" in the film Who Killed the Electric Car? The attempt to make fuel cells viable so energy companies have a fuel to sell passes through batteries. Sooner or later, maybe a journalist covering the auto beat will ask why we don't just cut out the middle man and let folks plug in.

Why Not Ethanol? Yet Another Reason

The case for ethanol, if not the funding, is wilting on the vine. Scientific American points out the problems in "Is Ethanol for the Long Haul?" in the January issue. And Consumer Reports looks at ethanol's real world shortcomings in "The Ethanol Myth."

An OpEd in today 's NY Times "Praying at the Pump," highlights yet another chink in the case for ethanol. Simply put, markets. Global markets. And I'm not just talking about the price of tortillas in Mexico City. (See my Tortillas and Ethanol post.)

Ronald E. Minsk argues that the economic problem of petroleum isn't so much dependency on foreign sources as vulnerability to price fluctuations. He points out that the market for liquid fuels for transportation is global, source doesn't determine price, and that any substitute liquid fuel will be priced in the context of petroleum.

the percentage of oil we import is relatively unimportant. Even the use of alternative liquid fuel instead of oil-derived gasoline will not allow us to escape this volatility, because as direct substitutes for each other, gasoline and alternative fuels will be similarly priced, just as gasoline sold by different oil companies or at different gas stations is similarly priced today.

Minsk mentions plug-in hybrids could help temper price volatility "in the short term... allow[ing] consumers to choose day to day whether to power their cars with oil or with the sources their utilities use." And notes that "if we cannot find a way to increase production and inoculate ourselves from oil-supply interruptions, we are either going to have to develop cars that need no oil, or learn to live with the risks of the global market."

As a lawyer for electric utilities, the solution to the market dilemma of liquid fuels is right under his nose. Think bigger. Plug-in cars aren't a stop-gap on the road to some prayed for price-stable liquid fuel.

There are many paths to take as we seek to improve our energy security, but all should be based on one principle: real security can come only through finding a way to keep prices stable.

Truly there is no better way than to use a fuel that comes with a different set of governing rules. Electricity markets have had their own issues, for sure. But the market is national and there's a hell of a lot more regulation. The electric utilities need to make the case for electricity in cars. The fact that electricity pricing is not connected to world liquid fuel prices is one more arrow in their quivver.

Exxon is #1!

NY Times reports:

Exxon’s profit rose 9 percent from 2005 results to a record of $39.5 billion, the largest annual profit ever for an American company.

Th!nk Resumes Production

The Norway Post reports that Th!nk Global will manufacture 500 Th!nk City electric cars in 2007, with production beginning in summer. No specifics about the battery type. The article states, "The new "Think" model will have improved batteries with a range of 180 km (111 miles) between charges and a top speed of around 100 km 60 mph)."

As for the supposed lack of demand for electric cars, according to the Norway Post story:

At the moment it is impossible to buy a new el-powered car in Norway and several thousand prospective buyers are on a waiting list.

In Norway, el-powered cars are favoured with no road tax and no parking fees, free pssage on toll roads, as well as being allowed to use the public transport lane on roads.

Investors Daily: Pull the Plug on Ethanol

Investors Business Daily posted an editorial this week, Just Plain Fuelish, that just plain gets it. A smorgasbord of research alternatives and subsidized if politically profitable good intentions just won't cut it anymore. IBD is ready to choose. And they choose electricity, not ethanol. The State of the Union may have seen Sen. Grassley dancing in the aisles, but Investors rains on the ethanol parade.

By now, credible economists and scientists have debunked the myth that ethanol can play anything more than a small supporting role in the energy-security mission. Ethanol has less power per gallon than gasoline. It can be produced profitably only with fat subsidies. Making it from corn (the only current source in this country) consumes so much other resources that the net energy savings are, by some accounts, nonexistent.

But IBD believes that the political juice of ethanol is distorting policy decisions.

There is a well-organized and influential ethanol lobby in this country, led by corn farmers, food processors such as Archer Daniels Midland Co. and politicians such as Grassley.

Advocacy for plug-in cars is much less organized and underfunded. The utilities need to step up, declare the benefits of electricity in cars, and promote its product. And lobby as fearlessly as do Big Oil and Big Corn.

Hat tip to Felix Kramer of CalCars

Detroit Faces Skeptical Washington; Bush Long on Rhetoric

The Detroit News story today, Big 3's call for U.S. aid gets cool reception, outlines the predicament faced by automakers and Washington. Many lawmakers are pressuring for action on fuel efficiency. The automakers came begging for research dollars and restraint on CAFE standards. As Michigan Democrats line up with the most Republicans to protect the Big 3 on CAFE standards, Bush has already disappointed Detroit on the money front:

GM, Ford Motor Co. and DaimlerChrysler AG were disappointed their request for $500 million in federal funds over five years for research into advanced batteries was not mentioned during the State of the Union. It is not likely to be part of the president's budget request set to be unveiled Monday.

It seems the president, for all his plug-in promotion, isn't allocating dollars commensurate with his rhetoric. Energy Washington Week reports PHEVs getting short shrift:

Although increased attention is being paid to the technology, it is not sure how much support the president will lend PHEV in the 2008 budget. The White House says hybrid funding will be higher than last year's budget request but would not elaborate. Hydrogen and fuel-cell vehicle R&D still comprise the lion's share of the current 2006 budget, an allocation that critics said was to the detriment of other vehicle programs, including advanced battery development. The earmarks attached to the hydrogen initiative, alone, were enough to place other DOE programs in jeopardy, these critics warned.

Proof:

Energy Department grants -- to the tune of about $44 million -- funded just over half of Ford's plug-in hydrogen fuel cell vehicle unveiled last week in Washington.

A Tesla Roadster for every member of Congress would have been a better use of the money.

A Jewish Electric Car?

A report from IsraelNationalNews.com out of Davos reports on talks to build electric cars in Israel.

At the just-ended World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Shimon Peres held informal talks about building an electric-car factory in Israel with representatives of Toyota and Renault.

It's about time. If there's one country that ought to have long ago developed a domestic electric car industry it is Israel. No oil of its own should be reason enough. Every drop purchased on the international markets propping up its sworn enemies should be reason enough. Not very far to drive in this very small country should be reason enough. Lots of high tech brainpower should be reason enough. Dayenu.

Tesla Powered Th!nks?

Michael Kanellos over at CNetNews.com reports from the recent Clean-Tech Investor Summit that Tesla Motors will be selling its battery packs to other electric car companies. First in line appears to be Th!nk Global of Norway with its ready-for-manufacture Th!nk City.

Martin Eberhard, CEO of Tesla Motors, said that Tesla has formed a group called Tesla Energy Now to sell battery packs to other companies.

"A certain unnamed Scandinavian electric car company has become a customer," he said.

Sitting two seats down on the panel was Jan-Olaf Willums, president of Th!nk Global...

I drove a 2001 Ford Th!nk City for three years in San Francisco. It is the car that brought me forth out of the oil age, and made me realize it was not technology, batteries, or consumer acceptance that was keeping electric cars out of the showroom. As you can see in the film Who Killed the Electric Car?, I was not a happy camper when Ford took away my car.

The redesigned 2003 Th!nk City was stopped on the assembly line when Ford killed its electric program. Since being taken over by a Norwegian investment group last year, Jan-Olaf Willums, president of Th!nk Global, has been searching for a viable, affordable battery to power the new Th!nk City. A Tesla-powered Th!nk City would be a welcome entry into the growing London market for congestion charge avoiding electric cars, and capture attention in California and New York, where hundreds once roamed (gas) free.

The Reality of AltFuels Under Bush

Maybe he means it this time. Perhaps the 7th SOTU mention will be the charm. But a story in today's NY Times, Energy Research on a Shoestring, suggests otherwise. President Jimmy Carter established the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at the edge of the Rockies, but its always been afterthought of America's energy policy.

The hopes for this neglected lab brightened a bit just over a year ago when President Bush made the first presidential call on the lab since Mr. Carter and spelled out a vision for the not-too-distant future in which solar and wind power would help run every American home and cars would operate on biofuels made from residues of plants.

But one year after the president’s visit, the money flowing into the nation’s primary laboratory for developing renewable fuels is actually less than it was at the beginning of the Bush administration.

'Nuff said.

Overflow Crowd in Lodi (!) for Electric Car Film

Lodi News-Sentinel Reports Over 400 people turned out for a free viewing of Who Killed the Electric Car? in Lodi, CA last night. Lodi is not hippie or Hollywood. It's an agricultural town of less than 60,000 in reliably Republican San Joaquin County. The event was sponsored by the Lodi Municipal Electric utility, which leases five all electric RAV4 EVs from Toyota.

Angela Daniel is concerned about America's reliance on foreign oil and would consider driving an electric car if the technology was more readily available....

...Many people in the audience said they were interested in buying an electric car but lacked the information. Gene Corriea said he was there to learn more about electric vehicles.

"It's an interesting subject," he said. "It's something we should have but they won't let us."

...Davey Drouin, a teacher from Lodi, got there early to avoid the crowd of people, some of whom waited 15 minutes to get into the theater. He said he was impressed with the turnout.

"I can see this crowd in Santa Cruz or Berkeley, but not Lodi," he said. "I was expecting to be the only one here."

SOTU: Will Bush Plug Plug-ins?

First hint from the NY Times says ethanol will be the big winner in Bush's State of the Union Address. Advocates of plug-in cars are hoping for a another good word and perhaps some funding for plug-in hybrids. We'll see.

Springtime for Ethanol (registration required) In his State of the Union address, President Bush is expected to call for a huge increase in the amount of ethanol that refiners mix with gasoline, probably double the current goal of 7.5 billion gallons by 2012.

While the details of the proposal are not known, 15 billion gallons of ethanol would work out to more than 10 percent of the country’s current gasoline consumption, and is far beyond the current capacity of about 5.4 billion gallons.

At least half of the new ethanol would come from corn, signaling the administration’s support to the Midwest farm states that have benefited the most from the recent ethanol boom.

For an industry once dominated by the will of a single powerful producer, Archer Daniels Midland, ethanol has come a long way, joining the oil industry and producers of major agricultural commodities as an entrenched political force in Washington. And it now enjoys a powerful role in presidential politics because of Iowa’s status as one of the first states to select delegates to the parties’ nominating conventions.

Vote for the Volt

GM wants to know if you think they should make the Volt. As of today, it's Yes: 106,000; No: 1800.
Vote for the Volt. It can't hurt.

UPDATE: FWIW Sun 6pm. Yes: 156,000

UPDATE: Tuesday 1am: Yes 200,000

UPDATE: Tues 6pm: Yes 214,000

UPDATE: Friday 12:30 am Yes 265,000

UPDATE: Saturday 5:45 pm Yes 287,000

Automaker Plug-in Hybrid PR Flurry

In the wake of the Chevy Volt presentation by GM, my "plug-in hybrid" google alert has filled my inbox with reports from other automakers about their PHEV projects. The buzz about the Volt has generated automaker PR reactions. One big corporate "ME TOO!" Daimler/Chrysler has dusted off its long ago announced Sprinter PHEV. Nancy Goia of Ford got some ink for comments at the Automotive News World Congress in Detroit. Even Honda got in on the act.

Next up, President Bush. Look for handouts to Big Auto for "battery research" in the State of the Union address. USABC 2.0? You can't keep such a good idea as plug-in hybrids down, but it can be delayed. $500 million for battery research buys time. 50,000 grants of $10,000 to purchasers of plug-in cars might just drive the market.

Press Release Source: Chrysler Group
DaimlerChrysler Only Manufacturer Building and Testing Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles with Lithium-Ion Battery Technology in Customer Fleets
Autochannel (press release) - USA
- Lithium-ion battery research will accelerate future hybrid development
- DaimlerChrysler investigates plug-in technology with test fleet
- Dodge Sprinter Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) can drive up to 20 real-world miles on electric-only power
- Industry first PHEV combined with diesel for maximum fuel efficiency
AUBURN HILLS, Mich., Jan. 19 -- More than 20 Dodge Sprinter Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) will be placed in the United States between now and the first quarter of 2008 as ...

Ford Mulls Plug-In Hybrids
Car and Driver - Ann Arbor,MI,USA
Ford is considering adding plug-in hybrid vehicles, which can be recharged by existing electrical systems, to its future product portfolio, the Dow Jones Newswires reported, citing the company's hybrid vehicle director.
Nancy Gioia, speaking to the Automotive News World Congress in Detroit, said, "The biggest barrier [to such technology] is the battery."...

Honda considering plug-in hybrids
Business Portal 24 (press release) - Bad Lausick,Sachseri,Germany

Grist Writer Gets the URGE2 Electrify

David Roberts is a staff writer at Grist, an online enviro magazine. He's written a piece in TomPaine.com that deserves attention. As Roberts' posits, 2007 holds out tremendous promise, the stars are aligned. Everyone is paying attention to green. But enviros are all over the map. They have no consensus message.

Everything from light bulbs to organic food, to flex-fuel cars to a carbon freeze tax—no, make that a cap-and-trade program—clamors for attention.

So Roberts decided to find the point of agreement,

a common overarching chorus, one with which everybody from security hawks to conservationists to evangelicals can sing along.

I hereby propose just such an overarching message, a mere five words long: Use renewably generated electricity, efficiently, or URGE² .... As far as greens are concerned, everything that advances that goal should be supported. What doesn't should be ignored or opposed.

Putting renewable electricity into plug-in cars would move to the top of any such coherent enviro agenda, and of course ethanol moves down.

The simple fact all greens need to internalize is that it's easier to find clean, renewable sources of electricity than it is to find clean, renewable liquid fuels. The logic is inexorable: We need to shift almost all power use to electricity.... electrification has got to be the end goal.

That means dialing back the ethanol frenzy. It means pushing for plug-in hybrids and eventually fully electric vehicles, as well as an electrified national high-speed rail system. But primarily it means escalating the fight against public enemy No. 1: oil.

In California, I and over 50% of the drivers of electric cars have rooftop residential solar electricity. The interest in one led logically to the other. And so we pay neither Big Oil, nor our local utility. A green dream trifecta of energy independence, zero emissions, and zero carbon. If the Sierra Club, NRDC, and the Union of Concerned Scientists awaken from their CAFE-induced slumber and espouse such a message as Roberts' suggests, projects awaiting commercialization from a Toyota plug-in Prius to the Saturn plug-in Vue and the Volt just might get the jolt need. It's about the plug, stupid.

Tortillas and Ethanol

Corn and petroleum course through our veins. As Michael Pollan convincingly argues in The Omnivore's Dilemma, what we eat has become almost as corn-based as our driving is petroleum-based. And without cheap oil, corn would not have become Big Corn, the big agricultural combines (principally ADM and Cargill). Now corn is making a play for a chunk of the transportation market once surrendered to Big Oil. The inefficiencies of corn ethanol be damned, Big Corn can make money on the ethanol boom coming and going.

It's been a different story for Mexico's farmers. They have had a tough time dealing with the influx of cheap American corn since NAFTA. As reported in Forbes, "The government eliminated its decades-old subsidy for tortillas in 1999 just as cheap corn imports were rising from the United States under NAFTA." Abundant petroleum-fueled American corn kept the price of tortillas down in Mexico City for a while. Then America found yet another use for corn, and the price has been bid up.

"The U.S. Agriculture Department said Friday that ethanol plants and foreign buyers are gobbling U.S. corn supplies, pushing prices as high as $3.40 a bushel, the highest in more than a decade."

Mexicans are clamoring for an explanation of why tortilla prices are rising so fast. But America is beginning to be willing to pay for independence from Big Oil. Ethanol may be a political, economic and energy boondoggle, but that doesn't mean it ain't got juice.

And now corn production is down.

"Nationwide in the United States, supplies of corn are expected to drop to 752 million bushels, a drop from last month's forecast of 935 million bushels and a steep decline from last year's supply of 1.967 billion bushels.

Our energy independence need not mean higher priced tortillas for the poor of Mexico. You can't eat electricity.

NPR Science Friday on the Chevy Volt

NPR's Science Friday with Ira Flatow spent half an hour on the Volt. Bill Moore of EVWorld.com, Paul Scott of Plug In America. Enthusiasm and scepticism. Well worth the listen.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=6835607

Huh?

Associated Press report in The State of Columbia, South Carolina

"The Volt overcomes range, noise and power issues that plagued previous electric cars."

Noise issues?

Out of the Closet? Is the Saab BioPower a Plug-in Hybrid?

In Stockholm and LA it was just the BioPower 100, a 100% ethanol fueled hybrid. A premature press release identified it as a plug-in, but that was withdrawn and the plug was not to be found. It had, perhaps, been glued shut.

Now that the Volt has premiered in Detroit to huzzahs and widespread press, this Saab, yet another GM concept hybrid, has been unveiled, again. Although Plenty magazine identifies it as a plug-in, nothing in the press material I found confirms this. It does have a switch to run on lithium battery electric power for up to 20 km, but a plug does not appear to be part of the equation. Since 100% ethanol is hardly available, this must be considered truly a concept car. With a plug and a flex-fuel E85 capable engine, they'd really have something marketable. Don't hold your breath.

Chevy Volt: Can't We All Just Get Along?

What a difference a week or two can make.

Chris Paine, director of "Who Killed the Electric Car?," is attending the Detroit Auto Show. And he's not the pariah-in-residence. He's all charged up about the Chevy Volt.

So is Detroit. Just two weeks ago Free Press auto critic Mark Phelan was twisting Mr. Paine's words to justify GM killing the EV1. Now Phelan, GM, Paine and Chelsea Sexton, Plug In America's Executive Director, all seem to be on the same page.

'Paine is convinced GM is serious about the Volt and about making a transition from fossil fuel to electric power for its vehicles.

"Top management is behind this," he said. "GM is responding to the marketplace."'

Chevy Volt & Ford Airstream: The Plug-in that Could Be & the Plug-in that Couldn't Possibly

Amidst the well-deserved hoopla about GM's plug-in serial hybrid Chevy Volt, Ford is touting its own equally ugly plug-in hybrid concept car. GM's vehicle is eminently buildable today, as it relies on two energy sources that are available: grid electricity and gasoline. Ford makes no pretense of its intention not to produce its car. In place of a small gasoline generator, it relies on a hydrogen fuel cell to generate the electricity once the grid-charged Lithium batteries are depleted.

Inspired by the classic Airstream, no one will expect to see anything like this anytime soon. Classic concept car fare. Given the fuel economy stats presented in Ford's press release, 41mpg equivalent, no one would want one anyway. (Not to mention the cost and unavailability of hydrogen.) The achievement, it must be said, is that somehow, even with grid-supplied electricity, the result is such pathetic fuel economy.

There is one important point to note in Ford's prototype. To the extent the industry's fuel cell project is real, it is coming to depend upon the much maligned battery to save its ass. Ford's announcement explicitly states that the fuel cell merely supplies additional electricity to the batteries that actually power the electric motor that drives the car. Honda's FCX also relies on an unspecified amount of battery power to make the car viable. Ford has interestingly chosen to ride the plug-in hybrid wave with the Airstream announcement. Perhaps a year ago this might have been touted as a hydrogen fuel cell concept car. Honda may yet stick a plug on its FCX. The times they are a changin'.

It's Got a Name: Chevrolet "Volt" Plug-in Hybrid

With an Auto Show overview article dated tomorrow, Sunday, Jan 7, the New York Times becomes the first publication to name the much-anticipated GM plug-in hybrid vehicle.

"General Motors will unveil an electric concept car, the Chevrolet Volt, which has created the most buzz in advance of the show. G.M. says the Volt, a plug-in hybrid, could deliver the equivalent of 150 miles a gallon. The Volt thus promises — at least in theory, given that it could not be produced without a leap in battery technology — three times the mileage of a Toyota Prius."

Judging from the discussion last night at a Sierra Club-sponsored viewing of Who Killed the Electric Car? in Oakland, CA, the Volt might actually be a GM car people would buy.

Toward a Plug-in Hybrid Saturn Vue

GM today announced two contracts to "design and test lithium-ion batteries" for use in the Saturn Vue Plug-in Hybrid announced last month at the LA Auto Show. Johnson Controls/SAFT, the huge battery company at which President Bush first publicly announced his support for plug-in hybrids, received one contract. A partnership of Cobasys (Chevron/ECD) and A123 got the second. According to the press release, two variants of Lithium batteries will be "evaluated in prototype Saturn Vue Green Line plug-in hybrids beginning later this year."

One point of interest is that GM and Cobasys are forsaking the technology that could provide plug-in hybrids in the shortest time - the Nickel Metal Hydride battery for which Cobasys holds the patents and GM used in its 140-mile range EV1. While the future may belong to Lithium, a case can easily be made for the early roll-0ut of NiMH plug-ins. Hundreds of millions of safe, robust, reliable miles have been driven in EV1s and Toyota RAV4 EVs, as well as billions of miles in conventional hybrids, all using NiMH. If the automakers felt compelled by the market or the government or a petroleum crisis to bring plug-in cars to showrooms asap, NiMH it would be. Chevron would add royalty payments to its ample bottom line, but clearly that's not enough of a motivator.

Toyota President's New Year's Letter

Toyota released (and EVworld.com reprints) President Watanabe's New Year's letter to employees. He mentions continued focus on hybrid technologies, including "research and development for plug-in hybrids" and the introduction in Brazil of a "flexible fuel vehicle (FFV) that can run on 100 percent bioethanol fuel." Not a word about hydrogen or fuel cells. If Toyota really intends to roll out "environmentally considerate vehicles that are suited to the infrastructure of each region and meet the needs of customers," plug-in Toyotas should be coming to America. We've got the ubiquitous electrical grid that a US Dept of Energy study finds could "fuel 84 percent of the country's 220 million vehicles if they were plug-in hybrid electrics," and no infrastructure for 100% bioethanol fuel.

"Concerning the environment, Toyota has positioned hybrid technologies as core technologies that can contribute to resolving environmental issues, and we will undertake development with a commitment to leading the advancement of such technologies. We will continue to enhance our hybrid vehicle lineup and also actively engage in research and development for plug-in hybrids. In response to the diversification of energy sources, we intend to introduce in the spring in Brazil a flexible fuel vehicle (FFV) that can run on 100 percent bioethanol fuel.

Based on the concept of "the right vehicle for the right place at the right time," Toyota is committed to developing environmental technologies and rolling out environmentally considerate vehicles that are suited to the infrastructure of each region and meet the needs of customers."

Honda: 12 more years of no choice for consumers

There's really only one way to read the Kyodo News (Japan) report that Honda President Takeo Fukui said in an interview that Honda thinks it will be able to mass produce fuel-cell vehicles for the general market by 2018. For you and me that means gasoline-only Hondas (along with a few NGV Civics for die-hards) for at least another decade. Not surprising from this quintessential internal combusion engine company.

Honda previously announced plans to offer a hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle based on its FCX Concept in Japan and the United States. At the Santa Monica AltFuel Expo in early December, I asked Steven Ellis, Honda AFV Chief, about the FCX. He said Honda would begin selling the car in 2008. I asked if he meant "selling" the car. Yes, he said. So I repeated, with emphasis, "selling?" And he confessed it would be, like the short-lived all-electric EV+, lease only. Press reports had already made clear it was to be lease-only, but seems the big auto guys can't help themselves. Reminiscent of GM referring to EV1 drivers as "owners," despite their unwillingness to actually sell the car. I also tried to find out the size of the battery pack in this battery/fuel cell hybrid car. "It's Lithium," he said proudly as he refused to divulge its kWh rating.

By evolving a next model based on this, I think the level of
technology will become very close to that of mass-produced ordinary
vehicles within 10 years or so. In 2018, I believe the development
[of a fuel-cell car] will have been very advanced. It will become a
real possibility to a large degree.
—Takeo Fukui

Fukui told Kyodo that there will be many customers who want to buy a Honda fuel-cell car if it goes on sale for ¥10 million (US$84,000) in the general market. Of course, the current cost of fuel cell cars is estimated at more than 10 times that figure.

Challenges that still need to be overcome before mass production is possible for Honda include reducing the amount of metals used for fuel cells, improving hydrogen storage and lower-cost production of hydrogen, according to Fukui. Is that all?

I suspect the battery we'll see in the FCX will be big enough to for a great plug-in hybrid. Honda could still sell it's engines with each car, but such a product would be marketable before the end of this decade. Not, I'm afraid, in Honda's plans. Yet.

MIT Year End Energy Review touts PHEVs

The MIT Technology Review reports plug-in hybrids a big 2006 energy story:

"The plug-in hybrid-vehicle era begins.
For years, hobbyists and a few companies have been adding bigger battery packs to hybrid vehicles, which have both battery power and an internal combustion engine, and plugging them into electrical outlets. This allows the cars, which typically rely on the electric power only for short bursts or to assist the onboard gasoline engine, to run on electricity alone for short trips. The idea of the "plug-in hybrid" has now caught the attention of government officials and researchers, who note that gas consumption would plummet if drivers could rely almost exclusively on electricity for average daily driving of about 33 miles. The gasoline engine would be available to boost performance and make it possible to use the car for long trips. Now the major car companies are taking notice and are finally developing plug-in hybrids. (See "GM's Plug-In Hybrid.") Meanwhile, researchers are beginning to anticipate benefits from plug-ins beyond gasoline conservation: millions of plug-in vehicles could serve as massive energy storage to stabilize the electric grid and make renewable energy sources more feasible. (See "How Plug-In Hybrids Will Save the Grid.") Battery costs still need to drop before such cars will approach the price of conventional hybrids or gas-only vehicles. But better batteries are already becoming available.

The Beast in the Rumble Seat

There is more to Dan Neil's recent LA Times column than a favorable review of yet another gasoline-only hybrid. He likes the Nissan Altima Hybrid well enough. Calls it a "Camry hybrid in tight jeans." More important, Neil says, is that it comes from an automaker that had scoffed at "hybridization." In December, Nissan announced its "Green Program 2010," projecting a line of hybrids, plug-in hybrids and all-electric cars utilizing lithium-ion batteries of its own manufacture. We are at a tipping point according to Neil:

"Let's bookmark this moment in the history of cars, because what is emerging is something like consensus. Hybrid doubters — who once railed that the batteries were sketchy, the costs of the so-called hybrid premium unrecoverable, the mileage gains overstated, and so on — are beginning to look like the Flat Earth Society. As underscored last month when GM announced it would build a plug-in hybrid version of its Saturn Vue, the logic of electric propulsion is compelling. Electric motors are clean, lightweight, maintenance-free and powerful. The latest lithium-ion batteries are energy-dense, durable, compact and recyclable. Putting these components together opens a world of oil- and carbon-saving possibilities."

The automakers have been engaged in a snail's pace race toward greater efficiency and lower emissions. The Europeans have placed their bet on the more efficient diesel engine, achieving mpg ratings in excess of the Prius without the complication and expense of hybridization. Essentially, the Europeans believe cars will be all petroleum all the time for the forseeable future.

Toyota had a different take. Integrating highly efficient electric drive componentry into a gasoline-dependent internal combustion (ICE) vehicle results in desired greater mpg, but also provides a pathway to a better place, should the market or the government demand it. For the time being, the gasoline-only hybrids on offer are ICE preservers not ICE breakers. But add more batteries and an electrical plug to the design, and they've got instant access to power that radically changes the efficiency and emissions equation. Of course Toyota has little incentive to let the electrical genie too far out of the bottle. They've got their own profit-maximizing timeline. Hence, CalCars, EDrive, Hymotion and Hybrids Plus aren't waiting for the OEMs. They are putting plugs on hybrids today.

As it stands now, Toyota can incrementally improve their gasoline-only hybrids, staying out front in the mpg wars. No real motivation to plug in. Desperation, however, is a great motivator. Ford and GM, it would seem, need to throw a Hail Mary pass to get back in the game. Dan Neil suggests the ball is already in the air.

"Run this through your wetware: What about a car that uses a powerful electric motor to drive the wheels, that you would charge overnight like a cordless phone, that would deliver per-mile costs at a fraction of gasoline? And if the car should need to exceed its all-electric range, a small, hyper-clean gas-powered generator would be aboard to charge the battery. Such a widget, known as a serial hybrid, could get over 100 miles per gallon. Fantasy? Let's talk after next month's Detroit auto show."

As the price of gasoline returns to its pre-election season highs, the plug is looking mighty attractive and close at hand. Let's hope Detroit is taking another look. With a push from Bush such as Thomas Friedman recently fantasized, instead of another greenwashing concept car for the forever-future, Neil's serial plug-in could hit showrooms in eighteen months. Perhaps, at long last, truly what's good for GM might be good for America.

Auto Lobby Deals a New Card

Changing of the guard at the auto makers' industry group the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers (AAM). Former Democratic Congressman Dave McCurdy takes his lobbying skills from Electronics to Autos. As reported at the Washington Note, just seeing a Democrat in this top spot once held by Andy Card, who went on to become Bush's Chief of Staff, is a positive sign of the times. Still, this is the industry group (and its predecessor) that has opposed every attempt at auto sanity passed by the people's representatives - from seat belts to the ZEV Mandate to the California Greenhouse Gas bill. No reason to believe that stance will change.

But with change in personnel comes change in personal networks. As Steven Clemons points out in his report, McCurdy and Clinton's CIA chief Jim Woolsey, two guys from Oklahoma, go way back. Woolsey is one of the higher profile advocates for plug-in cars. Woolsey's gasoline-only Prius has a "Bin Laden Hates My Car" sticker, but he knows the only way to cut the cord in the near term is cars with an electrical plug. (Woolsey, pictured right, holding the plug for Felix Kramer's Plug-in Prius.) See his presentation at the Santa Monica AltFuel Auto Show below this post.

Here's to hoping Woolsey and McCurdy sit down for a nice lunch real soon. Perhaps their relationship can help break down the wall the auto industry has constructed to postpone the inevitable, electric future for cars.

Shill for a Withering Lie

No, I'm not referring to John McCain or the other remaining defenders of the Iraq adventure, predicated on so many lies. I'm speaking about Mark Phelan, columnist for the Detroit Free Press. You see Phelan was in North Carolina recently to test drive the new Toyota Tundra. one of the ever-larger vehicles that has catapulted Toyota's profitability. 15 miles per gallon, thank you very much. As Toyota planned it, we see Prius, they sell Tundra. But that's another story.

As Phelan tells this tale, (registration required) midway through their Tundra talk, Ernest Bastien, Toyota Motor Sales vice president for vehicle operations, surprisingly rose to defend GM. '"The movie 'Who Killed the Electric Car?' was terribly one-sided," he said intensely.' Phelan assures us this is conventional wisdom at dinner parties in Detroit, but this "completely unexpected" aside from Toyota surprised him.

Then comes the real shocker. "If it's not surprising enough to hear Toyota defending GM, try this on for size: The film's director pretty much agrees." As Jon Stewart would say: Whaaaa? Phelan quotes Chris Paine: "'We let Toyota off the hook for how they subverted the program' to sell electric cars because GM had a higher profile." See? The director concedes the film is unfair. Of course Paine was saying Toyota was just as actively involved in the killing, supplying more not less ammunition for the film's thesis. But he had to tell the story in 90 minutes. Just as in a newspaper column, you make a comprehensible narrative, hopefully based on a truthful "facts," giving competing viewpoints voice, to convey the larger story. That's what Paine did, giving auto guys plenty of screen time.

That's not what Phelan did. The conventional wisdom about the electric car is under attack. From the film to the agreements reached between Toyota and Ford with Plug In America to keep electric cars on the road to automakers own statements of late about plug-in hybrids and the "electrification of the automobile," the notion that the electric car failed due to its own shortcomings is slowly coming undone. None of this is reflected in the column, despite the author's having contacted and spoken with a representative of Plug In America in preparation for the column.

Phelan uses the conceit of automaker and filmmaker agreement on the unfairness of the film to shlepp out the same tired lies about what brought the electric car programs of the majors to an end. Just as Dave Hermance's final appearance at CARB in September mystifyingly rehashed the tired, inaccurate justifications offered up three years earlier, Phelan ignores the facts on the ground. PIA member Mike Kane's point by point response to Hermance's presentation provides an explanation of how the RAV4 EV Retail Program actually went down.

Toyota's motivation is understandable. As it is with all the majors, they perceive the postponement of the inevitable grid-connected car to be job one. No company wants to be first, to open the door to a future that portends a radical reshaping of the industry. Better to squeeze every last dollar out of the unchallenged, petroleum-swallowing internal combusion engine.

But what motivation Mr. Phelan? Why did an aside about one-sidedness turn into a one-sided column airing the automakers preferred narrative with no rebuttal other than the director's (who already "admitted" the film is unfair)? Phelan is a long-standing defender of the automakers views on the subject, and perhaps he takes the industry at its word. "Ernest Bastien deserves credit for sticking up for the truth," his column concludes. Whose truth?

I don't mean to pick on Phelan. Really. But his latest column is all too reflective of journalists lack of fair reporting on the electric car story, when they have bothered to cover it at all. As Paine himself has said, he made the film because he got tired of waiting for the media to pick up the story.

Paine deserves our thanks. His film shone a spotlight on a great underreported story, and industry has had to respond, even if in disingenous asides "defending" the competition to friendly columnists.

Wind Beneath his Wings: How Green Power and Plug-in Cars Can Save Bush's Legacy

Thomas Friedman of the NY Times has been on his geo-green kick for a while now, merging his eco-consciousness with his hawkish neo-liberalism. Going green is necessary, and it can get the US out of the pickle of the Mid East. Agreed. Ending our dependence on foreign oil is essential if we are to eliminate its perverting influence on our foreign policy.

Not content to offer an overarching theory to save America's environment and democratic internationalism, Friedman today ambitiously suggests a way to achieve the impossible - save George Bush's ass, I mean legacy. All I can say is "From your lips to God's, I mean Karl Rove's ear."

Given the stink of political corruption in Texas, one can be forgiven for thinking only foul winds blow. But whatever their source, the wind really blows in Texas. Thanks in part to Bush's support of a nascent wind industry during his tenure in Austin, much of that wind is being turned into electricity. Renewable energy is hot. Everyone save Dick Cheney thinks it's a darn good idea. Since Bush already seems to consider plugging in a car to be a no-brainer, plugging it in to renewable, nighttime Texas wind should be doubly appealing. If Bush grabs Friedman's concept, he's got a positive agenda to focus on during his final two years.

I can't say I expect Bush to be the leader to bring the good news of renewable electricity and plug-in cars to the masses. After all, what would his pals in the oil and gas industry say? But the politics of plug-ins makes strange bedfellows. Bring it on!

Congressional Letter for Plug-ins

Felix Kramer of CalCars reports that this week, in the first letter of its kind, 17 Senators and 21 Representatives from both sides of the aisle wrote to Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman and Office of Management and Budget Director Robert Portman, urging that the Fiscal Year 2008 budget request include at least $90M in funding for Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles (PHEVs). (See full text & signatories below.)

In the Senate, support extends from the far-right (Brownback) to the moderate-left Barack Obama. In the House, we see Southern Republican Conservatives, Democratic hawks and progressives lining up in an unusual alliance. As Sherry Boschert concludes in the final chapter of her new must-read book, plug-in cars have a role to play in "Bridging a Divided America."

Did your Congressional representatives sign the letter? If so, send them a letter of support for this action. If not, write to inform them about it and ask for their support for plug-in hybrids.

Dear Secretary Bodman and Director Portman

As you prepare the President's Fiscal Year 2008 budget request, we urge you to include adequate funding for Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs). Specifically we hope the President will request at least $90 million of funding for PHEVs including $45 million for advanced batteries, $20 million in PHEV analysis, system modeling and component study, $20 milliion in support of a pending executive order for demonstration vehicles (light- and medium-duty), and $5 million under the joint flex-fuel/hybrid vehicle commercialization initiative(section 706 of the Energy Policy Act of 2005).

As you know, PHEVs promise to significantly reduce our nation's dependence on oil while saving consumers hundreds of dollars at the pump each year and greatly reducing vehicular pollution and greenhouse gasses. The 2005 Energy Policy Act laid the framework for beginning to reduce oil dependence through a next generation of vehicles. A financial commitment from the federal government is vital if we are to see PEHVs on the road over the next few years.

Thanks for your consideration

Senators Evan Bayh, Sam Brownback, Joe Lieberman, Norm Coleman, Ken Salazar, Richard G. Lugar, Barack Obama, Orrin Hatch, Debbie Stabenow, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Maria Cantwell, Herb Kohl, Dianne Feinstein, Christopher Dodd, Carl Levin, Olympia Snowe

Representatives Eliot L. Engel, Jack Kingston, Bart Stupak, Lee Terry, Jay Inslee, Roscoe G. Bartlett, Bobby L. Rush, John Campbell, Tammy Baldwin, Judy Biggert, Tom Lantos, Mike Ross, Maurice D. Hinchey, Peter A. DeFazio, Howard L. Berman, Linda Sanchez, Lloyd Doggett, Rahm Emanuel, Sandy M. Levin, Allyson Y Schwartz, Doris O. Matsui

Dazed and Confused in Santa Monica?

Santa Monica AltFuel Expo was by all standard measure an overwhelming success. Thousands packed the hangar to meander through exhibits by companies large and small, trade groups, government agencies and advocacy organizations. Under one roof, all the alt fuels were represented, from hydrogen to biofuels and electricity to (using less) gasoline.

Panels and keynote addresses were well attended. Each alternative put its best face forward. Not all speakers adhered to the organizers call not to bash the other alternatives. Rock 'n roller and ex-CIA chief Jim Woolsey led the renegades. His presentation on the national security need to promote biofuels and plug-ins did not pull any punches on the problems and expense of the hydrogen project. He waved one of Felix Kramer of CalCars' simple $10 110 volt dongles to demonstrate the infrastructure required for plug-ins. Hydrogen booster Edwin Black reportedly walked out. [CORRECTION 12/15/06 Seems I was wrong about that. As the next batter up, Mr. Black was simply getting into the on deck circle.)

Black's presentation later was an amusing and rousing call for radical changes to move away from petroleum, calling consumers to task for continuing to buy gasoline cars. He remained "fuel-neutral," supporting electrics as part of the solution, but his focus is elsewhere. He repeatedly praised Honda's "vision," a pathway via CNG (Civic GX) to hydrogen (FCV). Why he should take seriously the utopian "Home Energy Station" given Honda dribbling out a few thousand Civic GXs and the slow to market PHIL home unit is beyond me.

But what did the show mean to the thousands looking for some direction and options? Did John and Jane Q Public leave the hanger more or less confused? If the guy in this LA Times story who left believing he'd be converting his truck to hydrogen power is any indication, bamboozlement continues apace.

I can't help feel the event should have held a debate. How would ethanol answer the assault on corn, hydrogen on its inefficiency and expense, electric on the grid and recharge times, etc. The gloves need to come off in a public context.

Santa Monica AltFuel Expo Sets up

Spent the day at the press event and setup for the Santa Monica AltFuel Expo, being held in conjunction with the LA Auto Show. One can be quite encouraged by the 30 odd alternative fuel cars of all shapes and sizes. I should feel heartened that battery electrics predominated, if you include NEVs and bikes.

I drove the AC Propulsion eBox (thank you, Tom), my first time behind the wheel of the ACP system. No real opportunity to let it rip in our pokey NEV-dominated parade on city streets, but as impressive as everyone says. A real car, by any measure. Phoenix Motors AltairNano powered SUV was the other full BEV. I hope to find out more tomorrow.

The production of Neighborhood Electric Vehicles and electric bicycles is picking up. ZENNs and Miles Motors and scaled down pickups and jeeps from companies I'd never heard of. But this is unlikely to have a large impact on the availability of full BEVs.

A few bio-cars were there. Honda with the remaining CNG vehicle from a major and two hydrogen fuel cell cars. Daimler Chrysler's FCV made an appearance.

And everyone was well behaved, as requested by the organizers. No internecine altfuel warfare. Ed Begley is representing Phoenix's BEV, but spoke optimistically of a clean hydrogen future. An actress was introduced and praised for her altfuel vehicle, which she said was a Lexus Hybrid SUV. Grumbling about her gasoline-powered altfuel car remained unspoken.

It remains to be seen how such fuel ecumenicism actually advances alt fuels into the real world marketplace. Lots of good words about fighting global warming and ending petroleum dependence. Yet each makes its most minimal contribution as all are essentially relegated to the future (or past) equally.

Hertsgaard: It's Worse Than You Think

Environmental author Mark Hertsgaard spoke at the San Francisco Department of Environment today. He has come to believe we are so far down the global warming road and its consequences that the time has come to move beyond mitigation to focus on adaptation. Of course, he said, every effort must continue to move toward a zero-carbon economy, but we need to get our collective head around the idea that our carbon emissions have warmed up the earth, and it's going to get even warmer. We can still make it worse, but we can't make it stop. More Katrina's. Summers hotter than the killer of 50,000 in Europe a few years ago.

Hertsgaard says environmental leaders shudder at the poltical consequences of such knowledge. Will everyone stop replacing their lightbulbs and stop buying hybrids if the next generations are screwed regardless?

I think the question enviros face isn't what doomsday timeline will optimally motivate policy-makers, industry or everyday people. Excepting our disgraced President, it is now conventional wisdom that global warming is real. When Shell Oil's CEO finally believes it's real, as he apparently does, the debate is over, Hertsgaard said,

The question is what are the best policies to support. And this is where we are being let down by environmental leadership, at least as regards transportation. The young man who rang my doorbell for Environment California this evening should have been more than a naive enthusiast for wind and solar and more efficient cars. He could have been an advocate for creating that renewable power and putting it into cars. Killing two birds with one stone, pardon the murderous cliche.

The end game is the cleanest, most renewable power possible for everything. Realistically, the only way we get renewable power into millions of cars is with grid electricity. GM has just given environmentalists a opening with its plug-in hybrid announcement.

GM is rumored to have yet another announcement regarding what Waggoner called "the electrification of the automobile" at the Detroit Auto Show in January. Will Toyota let GM be first to market with a plug-in?

Der Spiegel Catalogs Hydrogen ICE Green Myths

Titled "Not as Green as it Seems," Spiegel Online takes direct aim not only at BMW's vision of the future, but the entire hydrogen enterprise.

According to this review, "BMW has created an energy-guzzling engine that only seems to be environmentally friendly -- a farcical ecomobile whose only true merit is that of illustrating the cardinal dilemma of a possible hydrogen-based economy."

The article dissects the myth of clean, renewable hydrogen, and vividly explains the difficulty of storage.

"Advertizing images display the Hydrogen 7 against a backdrop of wind turbines and solar panels. But the image is one of deceit. Because the hydrogen dispensed at the new filling station is generated primarily from petroleum and natural gas, the new car puts about as much strain on the environment as a heavy truck with a diesel engine."

Similar to GM's plans for its hydrogen fuel cell Chevrolet, BMW plans to roll out 100 cars, lease only (sound familiar?), to get some real road experience. I took this car on a little drive in Sacramento in September at the CARB ZEVTech. Driving on hydrogen, the car is quite sluggish, at least on city streets. There is a noticeable delay, not unlike a slipping clutch, as you drive off. My RAV4 EV would beat it off the line!

Source:

www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,448648,00.html

How Big Oil Stays on Top

Almost every American who drives (and for better or worse that's most of us), must pay oil companies for the privilege. And they make a good profit. But it's not enough to sell a product and make the biggest profits in the history of the world.

Today's NYTimes has a big story about one way oil and gas companies continue to steal from us. They drill on public lands and are meant to pay US royalties. One of the Interior Department's auditors, Bobby Maxwell, had been doing his job well for 22 years, recovering hundreds of millions in underreported royalties. A self-described conservative, Maxwell found that agressive pursuit of industry for fair payment didn't fit with the new Bush administration's approach. They refused to pursue his case against Kerr-McGee Corporation. Maxwell was soon "reorganized" out of his job. Fortunately for us, he didn't stop doing his work just because he was forced into retirement. He continutes to pursue Kerr-McGee, now part of Anadarko, as a private citizen. All the major oil companies have joined Kerr-McGee to try and derail Maxwell's suit, but it remains scheduled for January.

Kerr-McGee/Anadarko may be saving up for the possible $50 million judgement in Maxwell's case. It is one oil company absent from the list of contributors to the successful No on 87 campaign in California. The oil and gas companies spent liberally to protect their profits from the California proposal. $3,000,000 from BP (Beyond Petroleum?) on Nov. 1. $2,000,000 from Chevron on October 17. And another $4 million on Halloween. Scary enough? I stopped counting Chevron's contributions not halfway through the report and the total was $19 million. AERA ENERGY LLP, a company I've never heard of, invested over $17 million between Oct 4 and October 27. I guess they decided they were being cheap, so they ponied up another $2.5 million on the 30th. Occidental Petroleum, at least 4.8 million. ConocoPhillips donated at least $3 million. No big surprise, they got the result they paid for.

These mega-corporations, it is not controversial to say, have too much power. As long as we have no choice but to buy their product, their power only increases. To our detriment, as consumers and citizens.

Sources:
www.nytimes.com/2006/12/03/business/yourmoney/03whistle.html?ref=business

cal-access.ss.ca.gov/Campaign/Committees/Detail.aspx?id=1282414&session=2005