Of course, we've heard these promises/predictions before. An SAE Research Report in 2001 stated that "several automakers have pledged the introduction of fuel cell vehicles, including buses, by 2003-2005." DaimlerChrysler, for example, predicted the industry would be selling 100,000 fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) by 2004. In 2007 GM spokesman Scott Fosgard told the Seattle Post-Intelligencer that by 2012 there will be about 10,000 hydrogen vehicles on the market from a variety of companies. I don't think so.
But Toyota's announcement itself should sow seeds of doubt. According to Green Car Congress:
During his presentation at the recent California Air Resources Board (ARB) ZEV Technology Symposium, Tatsuaki Yokoyama, from Toyota Motor Engineering & Manufacturing North America, said that Toyota aimed to reduce the cost of fuel cell vehicles to 1/10 of the current level by design and materials improvement by commercialization in 2015.Toyota aims to chop the present-day cost of fuel cell vehicles by 90%. In 5 years.
1 comment:
The predictions of fuel cell vehicle introductions indicate nothing. If we were to take predictions as a basis for success, then we should not hold out much hope for battery electric vehicles.
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